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Saturday, June 20, 2015

Odds and Ends: Democratic Candidates

Yesterday I charted the Republican Primary and its numerous candidates. Time for the much smaller Democratic field.  It is (in order of their declaration) (with my odds on their nomination):

April 12: Hillary Clinton.  Odds: 1:4
April 30: Bernie Sanders.  Odds: 25:1
May 30: Martin O'Malley.  Odds: 15:1
June 3: Lincoln Chafee.  Odds: 30:1

Exploring a candidacy: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb.  Odds: 15:1
Looming but unclear: Vice-President Joe Biden.  Odds: 10:1

This field will ultimately be only one-quarter to one-third the size of the Republican field. It's obvious why.  The nomination is almost certainly Clinton's. (Poor VP Biden never had a shot!) As a result, strong candidates like Webb, Mark Warner, and many others have been scared off of seeking it. If Clinton goes down in the general, however, we can expect a field in the double digits in 2020.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Odds and Ends: Republican Candidates

With yet two more Republican candidates officially declaring this week, it's time to take a step back and see who we have so far in the Republican Primary. There are twelve candidates officially declared with a few more on deck.  And they are (in order of their declaration) (with my odds on their nomination):

March 23: Ted Cruz.  Odds: 15:1
April 7: Rand Paul.  Odds: 12:1
April 13: Marco Rubio.  Odds: 8:1
May 4: Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.  Odds: 12:1 and 30:1
May 5: Mike Huckabee.  Odds: 30:1
May 27: Rick Santorum.  Odds: 30:1
May 28: George Pataki.  Odds: 100:1
June 1: Lindsey Graham.  Odds: 50:1
June 4: Rick Perry.  Odds: 15:1
June 15: Jeb Bush.  Odds: 3:1
June 16: Donald Trump.  Odds: 100:1

Almost certainly to come:
June 24: We expect Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (30:1) to announce.
Formally exploring a candidacy: Chris Christie (7:1), John Kasich (12:1), and Scott Walker (4:1)

That would make 16 candidates.  Sixteen!

You might be asking--how could we possibly fit 16 candidates that include Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee on a debate stage?  Well, we can't.  Not to fear--Fox has a plan! Only the top ten candidates (according to an average of national polls) will be in their August 6 debate.  They have also begun to plan a "second-tier debate" for the candidates who don't make the cut.  Fascinating.  More thoughts on that some other time.

Democrats tomorrow!

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Donald Trump is in!

Yes yes yes yes yes yes!

Bush Declares

The Republican favorite is officially a candidate. Unfortunately, no reference to the Magna Carta, on its 800th anniversary, in his speech.

Odds for the nomination--3:1
Odds for the White House--13:2
(More odds on left sidebar)
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