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Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Here Comes Huckabee!

Two-thousand-eight's last candidate to concede is giving it another shot. Today, Mike Huckabee announced his candidacy for the presidency. You might remember that he won the 2008 Iowa Caucus by an impressive nine points. He then rode that victory into a half dozen mostly meaningless more in the south, but was essentially done by Florida. Considering he won Iowa but collapsed into being a non-factor within a month, it's hard to see how he does any better now, especially with more competition from his core constituency--evangelical conservatives--from the likes of Ted Cruz, Dr. Ben Carson, and eventually Rick Santorum. Today's Christian, conservative speech tried to solidify that core, but it's hard to see how he'll expand it.

Seeing Huckabee and Santorum throw down would be fascinating. In those two candidates we not only have similar platforms and messages, but they are the last two Iowa winners and, like Huckabee ran second to McCain in 2008, Santorum ran second to Mitt Romney in 2012.  Their candidacies seem perfect to attract some loyal followers that can win them some states, but their lack of crossover appeal hurts their ability to fund-raise with the big boys, hence these distant second place results.  There's clearly not room enough for both of them, and they'll remain non factors as they and Cruz will limit each candidate's support.

Odds on nomination--25:1

Monday, May 04, 2015

May the 4th is with Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina

Ben Carson was long expected to use this day to announce his presidency in Detroit.  But Carly Fiorina?  That caught me by surprise. We'll see how interested the GOP is in a CEO. I'm guessing she'll have one big run up the polls later this year as Republicans start thinking the former Hewlitt Packard boss is the closest thing they have to their last nominee.  Then she'll crater by Iowa as Republicans start remembering that she is indeed the closest thing they have to their last nominee.

But Dr. Carson?  You had me at "I don't want to be a politician."

They'll both paint themselves as outsides in the upcoming race, a luxury that the other declared candidates--senators Ted Cruz. Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio--will not have. Still, I don't like the chances of any of the five and still see it as a three-horse race.

Odds on nomination:
Dr. Carson--12:1
Carly Fiorina--25:1 (see sidebar for more odds)
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