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Monday, August 10, 2015

First Post-Debate Poll!

We have our first post-debate poll! It's only Iowa, but it's something. Before we get into its results, let's first look at the Real Clear Politics Iowa average before this poll. In parenthesis, I'll put what their most recent, pre-debate poll said (done on 7/29, from Gravis).

1. Trump--20.3 (last poll had him at 31)
2. Walker--18.7 (last poll had him at 15)
3. Bush--9.7 (10)
4. Carson--7.0 (5)
5. Huckabee--6.3 (6)
6. Cruz--5.7 (6)
7. Rubio, Jindal--4.0 (3, 7)
9. Paul--3.7 (1)
10. Kasich--3.0 (5)
11. Fiorina, Perry--2.7 (4, 2)
13. Santorum--2.0 (3)
14. Christie--1.3 (1)
15. Graham--0.7 (1)

Okay, and now the results from today's post-debate Iowa poll from Public Policy Polling.

1. Trump--19
2. Carson--12
3. Walker--12
4. Bush--11
5. Fiorina--10
6. Cruz--9
7. Huckabee, Rubio--6
9. Kasich, Paul--3
11. Jindal, Perry, Santorum--2
14. Christie--1
15-17. Gilmore, Graham, Pataki less than 1%

Breakdown:
  • Trump has started to plummet back to Earth. From 31 to 19 is a huge fall.
  • Carson and Fiorina are the trendiest candidates, thanks to their applauded debate performances (I still can't believe Carson's was applauded). Carson was already looking solid in Iowa with his fourth place, 7-point average. His 12 this poll, however, catches Scott Walker for second place behind Trump and even outdoes Bush's 11. Coming off a 5 in the Gravis Poll, Carson has to feel really, really good. 
  • Fiorina's kiddie table dominance took her from 4 in the last poll to 10 in this one. She'll be solidly inside the Iowa top ten now, but her campaign, like the rest of us, eagerly awaits the first post-debate national poll to see if she can do the same nationally.
  • The Cruz march continues. With his 9 (following a 4 then a 6 in the last two Iowa polls), he'll pass 2008 winner Huckabee in the Iowa average to get into the its five.
  • Most disappointed? Marco Rubio. Rubio was an almost consensus winner of Thursday's debate. To only score 6 points--when he was double digits in April and May--has to hurt. His RCP average will barely climb from its lowly 4. If Iowa didn't respond to him after that debate, there's a chance he needs to more strongly consider focusing more on South Carolina and Florida. If Iowa has its heart set on Carson/Walker/Cruz, with Bush ready to spend a ton of money there to finish in the top three, he might want to redirect his funds instead of pouring them into a hopeless cause.
  • Also disappointed: Walker (it's his lowest Iowa support since January, and the last PPP poll had him at 23 in April, nearly double this August haul), Huckabee (he's no longer Iowa's favorite evangelical and is stuck at 6 or 7 in the last four polls), Kasich (the debate won over moderates but did not play well in Iowa), Jindal (he had 7 in the Gravis poll, which hinted at him finally getting traction in a state that should be perfect for him, but then this 2 put an end to that thought), and Paul (three points for a guy who once led the Iowa polls. THREE!)
  • Favorability splits. Carson dominates again at a 69/10 favorable/unfavorable for a +59. Rubio second at +51. Walker, Huckabee, and Fiorina all have net favorables in the 40s. Of the contenders, the bottom three are Trump (46/40 for +6), Christie (34/44 for -10), and Rand Paul (31/45 for -14).
Final analysis:
  • At this point, the race for Iowa looks like a four person race between Walker, Carson, Cruz, and either Huckabee or a possible Santorum/Jindal/Perry late pop that displaces Huckabee, which can't be ruled out. I'd still give the edge to Walker, but Carson and Cruz have much better momentum. Since I still think voters ultimately don't give Carson the nuclear codes, I'd say Cruz is Walker's biggest competition.
  • Bush is getting way too much company up there for his liking. If someone offered him a third place Iowa finish right now, he'd take it and run. Anything less and it'd be embarrassing for the supposed front-runner, but a third place finished probably translates to a New Hampshire victory.
  • Fiorina could well hit double digits nationally as well. Watch your back, Chris Christie. I think you're about to fall out of the top ten. (Now if we can just get a national poll already!)

2 comments:

Greg G said...

It has never been clearer than now that Republicans are out of touch with reality. Thursday's debate was a circus, and the two men now leading the polls are the only two with absolutely zero political experience. This is the perfect time for a true leader to call out his own party, admit that a change is needed more than ever. Trump had the perfect opportunity to hold true to his renegade style by doing just that with his first question posed to him Thursday night. However, he was completely unprepared. He's already lost one campaign manager recently, and if I am a Trump supporter, I am very concerned that his team is not preparing him at all. Actually, why am I concerned, I am confident this is happening.

Hilary and the rest of the democrats will just remind everyone that nothing was accomplished with a Republican Congress, and here are these 10 potential candidates spewing off about Reagan and the Iran hostage crisis. I guess gun control is too touchy of a subject as Ferguson remains in its second night as a state of emergency. And speaking of Hilary, all Foxnews did was throw her an underhand lob pressing Trump about woman and talking about abortion. She came out glowing with her remarks about how Trump was offensive, but so are Rubio and the rest of the candidates for this basic ideology. (Abortion is not going to be abolished! Get over it) Way to go Fox. Why can't someone just stand up and speak the truth? Hello? Chris Christie??! Is this thing on?!? You are about to get bounced by a software exec. Yes you hugged Obama, but you do so in support of your people who were devastated by Sandy. You not defined by party status. Don't fall in line with these bozo's, step up and if you are going to go out, go out true to yourself. Tellin it like it is? Hardly.

IC said...

Greg G, ladies and gentlemen!

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