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Saturday, August 01, 2015

August 1 Polls, PPFA Plans

Boy, I'm glad that's over.  So, too, is anyone who got sick of reading those increasingly long entries. A few hundred words on Poor George Pataki grew to be a few thousand words on Rich Jeb Bush.

Time to turn to something new. I fully intend on also doing "candidate profiles" for the Democrats, but that will be later in August. The first ten or so days of the month will focus on the build up to, and the fallout from, August 6's Fox News Republican debate (to which I've already dedicated a couple posts).

Before I get into that, I want to start a new "first of the month" gimmick and take stock of the polls for the candidates of both parties. It won't be too interesting today (I'm really good at selling my blog), but at the beginning of each new month, we'll be able to see how the polls changed over the previous 30 to 31 days.

For the Republicans, we're not totally without a reference point. We can actually use my Candidate Profiles to see how each candidate was polling on the date they were published. Below, what I'm most interested in is the difference from when they were logged, both in terms of their polling average and where that average ranks. I'll catalog those to the right. (A minus sign will be bad, a plus sign will be good.)

Republican Polling

7/1: 16. George Pataki--didn't register then (16th), polling at 0.7 (15th) now. Difference: +0.7 (+1)
7/3: 15. Lindsey Graham--polled at 1.2 (15th) then, not registering in polls now. Difference: :(
7/5: 14. Carly Fiorina--polled at 2.0 (12th) then, polling at 1.3 (14th) now. Difference: -0.7 (-2)
7/7: 13. Rick Santorum--polled at 2.3 (11th) then, polling at 1.5 (12th) now. Difference: -0.8 (-1)
7/9: 12. Mike Huckabee--polled at 7.8 (5th) then, polling at 7.3 (5th) now. Difference: -0.5 (-)
7/11: 11. Donald Trump--polled at 6.5 (7th) then, polling at 20.8 (1st) now. Difference: +14.3 (+6)
7/13: 10. Bobby Jindal--polled at 1.3 (14th) then, polling at 1.5 (12th) now. Difference: +0.2 (+2)
7/15: 9. Rick Perry--polled at 2.8 (9th) then, polling at 2.2 (11th) now. Difference: -0.6 (-2)
7/17: 8. Ben Carson--polled at 7.6 (5th) then, polling at 6.2 (6th) now. Difference: -1.4 (-1)
7/19: 7. Ted Cruz--polled at 5.5 (8th) then, polling at 5.2 (8th) now. Difference: -0.3 (-)
7/21: 6. John Kasich--polled at 1.5 (11th) then, polling at 3.5 (9th) now. Difference: +2.0 (+2)
7/23: 5. Rand Paul--polled at 5.6 (7th) then, polling at 5.5 (7th) now. Difference: -0.1 (-)
7/25: 4. Chris Christie--polled at 2.8 (9th) then, polling at 3.0 (10th) now. Difference: +.2 (-1)
7/27: 3. Marco Rubio--polled at 6.8 (4th) then, polling the same now. (No national polls since 7/28)
7/29: 2. Scott Walker--polled at 13.7 (2nd).
7/31: 1. Jeb Bush--polled at 12.6 (3rd).

Biggest positive movers: Donald Trump (massive surge), John Kasich (still riding his announcement bump), George Pataki (he's registering now!)
Biggest negative movers: Ben Carson (a steady slide since his early apex), Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum (can't seem to get anything going with so much attention elsewhere)

7/1: 16. George Pataki--Didn't even bother recording it then, not registering now.
7/3: 15. Lindsey Graham--didn't register in polls, polling at 0.7 (15th) now. Difference: +0.7 (+1)
7/5: 14. Carly Fiorina--polled at 3.0 (12th) then, polling at 2.5 (11th) now. Difference: +0.5 (-1)
7/7: 13. Rick Santorum--polled at 5.3 (9th) then, polling at 2.8 (10th) now. Difference: -2.5 (-1)
7/9: 12. Mike Huckabee--polled at 8.0 (6th) then, polling at 7.0 (6th) now. Difference: -1.0 (-)
7/11: 11. Donald Trump--polled at 6.5 (7th) then, polling at 11.8 (2nd) now. Difference: +5.3 (+5)
7/13: 10. Bobby Jindal--polled at 2.0 (13th) then, polling at 2.5 (12th) now. Difference: +0.5 (+1)
7/15: 9. Rick Perry--polled at 3.7 (11th) then, polling at 3.5 (9th) now. Difference: -0.2 (+2)
7/17: 8. Ben Carson--polled at 7.5 (5th) then, polling at 7.8 (4th) now. Difference: +0.3 (+1)
7/19: 7. Ted Cruz--polled at 6.5 (8th) then, polling at 7.0 (7th) now. Difference: (+0.5) (+1)
7/21: 6. John Kasich--polled at 1.8 (14th) then, polling the same now. Difference: None
7/23: 5. Rand Paul--polled at 8.5 (3rd) then, polling at 7.3 (5th) now. Difference: -1.2 (-2)
7/25: 4. Chris Christie--polled at 2.8 (12th) then, polling at 2.3 (13th) now. Difference: -0.5 (-1)
7/27: 3. Marco Rubio--polled at 6.3 (8th). (No change for the rest)
7/29: 2. Scott Walker--polled at 19.3 (1st).
7/31: 1. Jeb Bush--polled at 9.8 (3rd).

Biggest positive mover: Donald Trump (massive surge)
Biggest negative movers: Rick Santorum (just like nationally), Rand Paul (What is going on there!)

7/1: 16. George Pataki--Didn't even bother recording it then, 1.5 (12th) now.
7/3: 15. Lindsey Graham--polled at 0.7 (15th) then, not registering now. Difference: -Infinity
7/5: 14. Carly Fiorina--polled at 4.6 (8th) then, polling at 3.8 (10th) now. Difference: -0.8 (-2)
7/7: 13. Rick Santorum--polled at 0.7 (14th) then, polling at 0.5 (15th) now. Difference: -0.2 (-1)
7/9: 12. Mike Huckabee--polled at 3.8 (10th) then, polling at 2.3 (11th) now. Difference: -1.5 (-1)
7/11: 11. Donald Trump--polled at 10.0 (3rd) then, polling at 16.8 (1st) now. Difference: +6.8 (+2)
7/13: 10. Bobby Jindal--wasn't registering then, polling at 0.5 (14th) now. Difference: +0.5 (+2)
7/15: 9. Rick Perry--polled at 2.5 (11th) then, polling at 1.8 (13th) now. Difference: -0.7 (-2)
7/17: 8. Ben Carson--polled at 5.5 (6th) then, polling at 5.5 (5th) now. Difference: - (+1)
7/19: 7. Ted Cruz--polled at 3.8 (9th) then, same now. Difference: None
7/21: 6. John Kasich--polled at 2.0 (12th) then, polling at 4.5 (8th) now. Difference: +2.5 (+4)
7/23: 5. Rand Paul--polled at 8.8 (4th) then, polling at 5.5 (5th) now. Difference: -3.3 (-1)
7/25: 4. Chris Christie--polled at 5.3 (7th) then, polling at 6.0 (7th) now. Difference: +0.7 (-)
7/27: 3. Marco Rubio--polled at 6.0 (4th). (No NH polls since 7/26)
7/29: 2. Scott Walker--polled at 8.8 (3rd).
7/31: 1. Jeb Bush--polled at 14.0 (2nd).

Biggest positive mover: Donald Trump (massive surge), John Kasich (announcement bump), Chris Christie (ditto), Bobby Jindal (kind of)
Biggest negative movers: Rand Paul (Yikes), Carly Fiorina (just like nationally), Rick Perry (The scariest four words in politics: Pataki has caught you)

Conclusions: 

  • It's impossible with this data to draw conclusions on the last few entries, so their names didn't come up in the "movers" section.
  • Donald Trump climbed enormously since his 7/11 entry, and he did it by taking away from just about everyone else.
  • John Kasich could not be happier with his progress since 7/21.
  • The only reason we can't describe the Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina campaign as being in free fall is because they weren't that high up to begin with. But they're in trouble.
  • George Pataki and Lindsey Graham are in a gruesome fight to register in the polls and stay out of last place.

Democratic Polling

 As for the Democrats, we'll unfortunately just need to plant the reference point today. We'll harvest on September 1. The following are the ranked by standings in each list, not necessarily where I will rank them later this month.

1. Hillary Clinton: 58.0
2. Bernie Sanders: 18.2
3. Joe Biden (undeclared): 12.0
4. Jim Webb: 2
5. Martin O'Malley: 1
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.8

1. Hillary Clinton: 53.5
2. Bernie Sanders: 25.5
3. Joe Biden (undeclared): 8.5
4. Martin O'Malley: 3.3
5. Jim Webb: 1.7
6. Lincoln Chafee: 0.3

1. Hillary Clinton: 45.5
2. Bernie Sanders: 30.5
3. Joe Biden (undeclared): 9.0
4. Martin O'Malley: 2.5
5. Lincoln Chafee: 1.0
5. Jim Webb: 1.0

Conclusions: Support Sanders if you love him, but stop making it seem like this race is competitive. Go back and look at the Republican numbers. That's competitive.

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