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Friday, June 19, 2015

Odds and Ends: Republican Candidates

With yet two more Republican candidates officially declaring this week, it's time to take a step back and see who we have so far in the Republican Primary. There are twelve candidates officially declared with a few more on deck.  And they are (in order of their declaration) (with my odds on their nomination):

March 23: Ted Cruz.  Odds: 15:1
April 7: Rand Paul.  Odds: 12:1
April 13: Marco Rubio.  Odds: 8:1
May 4: Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.  Odds: 12:1 and 30:1
May 5: Mike Huckabee.  Odds: 30:1
May 27: Rick Santorum.  Odds: 30:1
May 28: George Pataki.  Odds: 100:1
June 1: Lindsey Graham.  Odds: 50:1
June 4: Rick Perry.  Odds: 15:1
June 15: Jeb Bush.  Odds: 3:1
June 16: Donald Trump.  Odds: 100:1

Almost certainly to come:
June 24: We expect Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (30:1) to announce.
Formally exploring a candidacy: Chris Christie (7:1), John Kasich (12:1), and Scott Walker (4:1)

That would make 16 candidates.  Sixteen!

You might be asking--how could we possibly fit 16 candidates that include Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee on a debate stage?  Well, we can't.  Not to fear--Fox has a plan! Only the top ten candidates (according to an average of national polls) will be in their August 6 debate.  They have also begun to plan a "second-tier debate" for the candidates who don't make the cut.  Fascinating.  More thoughts on that some other time.

Democrats tomorrow!

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