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Saturday, June 20, 2015

Odds and Ends: Democratic Candidates

Yesterday I charted the Republican Primary and its numerous candidates. Time for the much smaller Democratic field.  It is (in order of their declaration) (with my odds on their nomination):

April 12: Hillary Clinton.  Odds: 1:4
April 30: Bernie Sanders.  Odds: 25:1
May 30: Martin O'Malley.  Odds: 15:1
June 3: Lincoln Chafee.  Odds: 30:1

Exploring a candidacy: Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb.  Odds: 15:1
Looming but unclear: Vice-President Joe Biden.  Odds: 10:1

This field will ultimately be only one-quarter to one-third the size of the Republican field. It's obvious why.  The nomination is almost certainly Clinton's. (Poor VP Biden never had a shot!) As a result, strong candidates like Webb, Mark Warner, and many others have been scared off of seeking it. If Clinton goes down in the general, however, we can expect a field in the double digits in 2020.

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