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Thursday, June 11, 2015

Jeb Bush Set to Announce

This Monday, June 15, Jeb Bush will announce his official candidacy for the Republican nomination. The announcement comes amid a swirl of speculation regarding the rough start to his campaign before it even begins, including how it has run off course, undergone a massive shake-up, and why it's generally struggling. These concerns are premature. As the Governor said, "It's June, for crying out loud."

Things will improve for the Bush Campaign after Monday's announcement. I'm curious to see if he makes a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary. I'd do it if I were him. It would paint himself as a learned anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and two of them (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.
What makes him viable? The Bush name, though poisonous among Democrats, can still rally many Republicans to his cause. We're also experiencing the inevitable upswing in former president George W. Bush's approval rating, meaning the big brother can pitch in when necessary. (Former presidents usually grow more popular as they shrink in the rear view mirror.)  Making him even more viable than his name is his related ability to raise funds. Interestingly, yet another negative recent story line for his fledgling campaign was a Bush SuperPAC's inability to raise $100 million by July.  If that's the standard for a successful campaign, then a successful campaign is nearly impossible, though it does show the drawbacks of high expectations.

As for his viability in the general election, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have against Hillary Clinton--dynastic fatigue.  If the GOP wants to take down Hillary Clinton, they'll be wise to focus on turning the page on recent American history. 
He'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough. The Republican way to victory is probably through Scott Walker, Chris Christie, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

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