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Saturday, March 31, 2012

When Will Romney Reach 1,144?

Yeah, yeah, I know, I didn't post all week.  I'll tell you what--full refund.

But let's be serious--the 2012 Republican Primary has lost its luster.  It has grown uncompetitive.  The mainstream media has finally caught up to what this blog has been saying for a while--Mitt Romney is the nominee of the Republican Party.  Recent endorsements from Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and former president George HW Bush tell us as much.  This aura of inevitability puts us in no mans land.  The GOP Primary is over, but it's not quite the general election yet, either.  Thus, my week off (with more days off to come).

Yet, even with the nomination all but settled, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul forge on, each hoping that their combined delegates will ultimately keep Romney from the requisite 1,144 needed to go into the convention without a deadlocked first ballot.  Their pluck, though admirable, will be fruitless.  Romney will get there in plenty of time.

When exactly?  I'm glad you asked.  As of this posting, according to Real Clear Politics, Romney has 565 delegates, meaning he needs to win 579 more.  (To estimate exactly when that will be, read this post while referring to the Republican Primary Schedule.)

This Tuesday has three contests--Wisconsin, Maryland, and Washington DC.  Romney has always been expected to win Maryland and DC rather easily, and their winner-take-all rules will earn a great delegate haul for him.  Santorum was thought to have a shot at Wisconsin, but Romney has stormed into and extended a lead in Wisconsin polls.  Of the day's 93 delegates, Romney will take around 75 to get up to about 640.

Then there's an 18-day break until Missouri (again).  Santorum might be able to hang on to his favorability there, but with Romney surely considered inevitable after sweeping on April 3, perhaps Santorum will even lose his stranglehold on the Midwest.  Let's say the candidates earn a split of the state's 52 delegates.  Romney has now tacked on 100 April delegates to bring his total to 665.

Three days later is the sizeable primary day of New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware, the amalgam of which awards 231 delegates.  Santorum should win his home state, but get demolished in the other four.  Romney easily clears 150 delegates.  815.

Then we turn to May.  May 8 has three Santorum states in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Indiana, which combine for 132 delegates.  But with Romney surging and Santorum falling apart (if he's even still in the race) Romney probably finds a way to win all three states.  Let's give him, for the sake of round numbers, 85 more delegates, bringing him to 900.

May 15 and May 22 have two states each--Nebraska/Oregon and Kentucky/Arkansas, respectively.  The four of them combine for 153 delegates, and Romney can expect to continue to consolidate the party, even if three states are in Santorum's former wheelhouse.  That's 100 more for 1,000 total.

The May 29 Texas Primary is worth a weighty 155.  It doesn't seem Romney will quite reach 1,144 with it, barring a drop outs from his rivals.  He'll close in on 1,100, though.

Only six primaries left.  Five of them are on June 5--New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, and the Big One--California.  That's 279 delegates combined--172 from California alone--which will, without question, put Romney over the top.  (The final primary will then be in Utah on June 26.)

So, when will Romney reach 1,144?  Either May 29 in Texas or June 5 in California.  Book it.

The more interesting question is: When will Santorum drop out?  You'll just have to check back for that one.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Republican Primary Standings, March 25

(Note: If you came here via a google search, or even if you didn't, these standings are outdated. Click here for the latest standings and coverage.)

Here are the latest republican delegate projections, now factoring in Rick Santorum's win in Louisiana, though all of its delegates are not yet allocated. I'll update these standings as those websites update theirs.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look forward to the rest of the 2012 Republican Primary

Republican Delegate Estimates
CNN Standings
1. Romney--571 (55%)
2. Santorum-264
3. Gingrich--137
4. Paul--71

Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--565 (55%)
2. Santorum--256

4. Gingrich--141
3. Paul--66
1. Romney--504
2. Santorum--193
3. Gingrich--134
4. Paul--27

Remaining pledged delegates: 1182
Number of remaining delegates Romney must win according to RCP's delegate projections: 579
Percent of remaining delegates Romney must win according to RCP's delegate projections: 48.98

GOP Primary Calendar

Updated 2012 GOP Primary schedule. Back tomorrow with a look at the Illinois Primary.

January 3: Iowa (caucus) -- SANTORUM
January 10: New Hampshire (primary) -- ROMNEY
January 21: South Carolina (primary) -- GINGRICH
January 31: Florida (primary) -- ROMNEY
February 4: Nevada (caucus) -- ROMNEY
February 11: Maine (caucus) --ROMNEY
February 7: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri (primary)--SANTORUM SWEEP
February 28: Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary), Wyoming Caucus--ROMNEY SWEEP
March 3: Washington (caucus)--ROMNEY
March 6: (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)--ROMNEY
Georgia (primary)--GINGRICH
Idaho (caucus)--ROMNEY
Massachusetts (primary)--ROMNEY
North Dakota (caucus)--SANTORUM
Ohio (primary)--ROMNEY
Oklahoma (primary)--SANTORUM
Tennessee (primary)--SANTORUM
Vermont (primary)--ROMNEY
Virginia (primary)--ROMNEY
March 10:
Kansas (caucus)--SANTORUM
Guam (caucus)--ROMNEY
Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)--ROMNEY
US Virgin Islands (caucus)--ROMNEY
March 13:
Alabama (primary)--SANTORUM
Mississippi (primary)--SANTORUM
American Samoa (caucus)--ROMNEY
Hawaii (caucus)--ROMNEY
March 18: Puerto Rico (Caucus)--ROMNEY
March 20: Illinois (primary)--ROMNEY
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--SANTORUM
April 3:
Wisconsin (primary)--42 (Winner Take All (kind of))
Maryland (primary)--37 (Winner Take All (kind of))
Washington DC (primary)--19 (Winner Take All (truly))
=98 on April 3
April 21: Missouri (caucus)--52 (actually counts this time)
April 24:
New York (primary)--95 (proportional)
Pennsylvania (primary)--72 (proportional)
Connecticut (primary)--28 (typically awkward)
Rhode Island (primary)--19 (proportional)
Delaware (primary)--17 (Winner Take All)
=231 delegates
May 8: North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia (132 southern-like delegates)
May 15: Nebraska, Oregon (63 delegates)
May 22: Kentucky, Arkansas (91 delegates--southern)
May 29: Texas (proportional primary--155 delegates, southern)
June 5: California (172… the biggest prize), New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico (279 June 5 delegates—single largest day remaining, and you have to like Romney in the two biggest)
June 26: Utah (40 delegates)

Total remaining (non-super) delegates (including those not yet allocated in Illinois in Louisiana): 1,182
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