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Friday, February 03, 2012

Nevada Caucus Preview; More Polls

What a difference a primary makes. Ahead of tomorrow's Nevada Caucus, the latest polls are out. Romney's repossession of the Republican Primary's momentum is evident in each of them. Whereas Gingrich had all the mojo after South Carolina, Romney's win in Florida has forced Mr. Momentum to change teams.

In the last 24 hours, new published polls came out from Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan. Yesterday, I relayed what was then the latest polls, which I warned were outdated. Let's contrast each of those with the very latest polling to see just how much momentum the Romney Campaign has seized.

In Nevada, a December poll ranked the candidates as follows:
1. Romney--33% (up 4 on Gingrich)
2. Gingrich--29%
3. Paul--13%
4. Santorum--3%

But then, the same polling team--the Las Vegas Review-Journal--conducted a poll from January 27 to January 31, which yielded the following (next to each I will write the difference from the December poll):
1. Romney--45% (+12 from last poll)
2. Gingrich--25% (-4)
3. Santorum--11% (+8)
4. Paul--9% (-9)

Romney gain + Gingrich loss: 16

We'll return to Nevada in a bit, but it should be known that PPP released a poll today that had Romney up to 50 percent (+17 from December) with Gingrich holding at 25, Paul up to 15, and Santorum down to 9.
Now let's take a look at Arizona, a February 28 primary. A November poll gave us:
1. Gingrich--28 (up 5 on Romney)
2. Romney--23
3. Paul--8
4. Santorum--3

Then, yesterday, a Rasmussen poll conducted on February 1 yielded the following:
1. Romney--48 (+25!)
2. Gingrich--24 (-4)
3. Santorum--13 (+10)
4. Paul--6 (-2)

Romney gain + Gingrich loss: 29
And the third published poll was out of Michigan, which also has a February 28 primary. Yesterday, I listed the following percentage points from a late January poll (1/25-1/30):
1. Romney--31 (up 5 on Gingrich)
2. Gingrich--26
3. Paul--14
4. Santorum--10

But now, another Rasmussen poll conducted on February 1:
1. Romney--38 (+7)
2. Gingrich--23 (-3)
3. Santorum--17 (+7)
4. Paul--14 (even)

Romney gain + Gingrich loss: 10
The trend is clear, and it's also the reason the Romney Campaign isn't as worried as most of the media wants them to be. With wins comes money. With money comes ads. With ads comes a rise in poll numbers. With a rise in poll numbers comes wins. With wins comes money. The cycle perpetuates itself.

The goal for Team Romney, therefore, is to just keep winning. That might seem obvious, but remember that his competitors, especially Gingrich, argue that even if Romney wins a plurality in most of the states, he will not get over 50 percent of the total delegates. The point, though, is that eventually, if Romney keeps winning, based on the cycle above, their winning percentages will crack 50 percent. With enough of those, they'll win a majority before the end of the primary season, and well before the Republican National Convention.

We might see that first 50 percent victory as soon as tomorrow. Tomorrow's Nevada Caucus has pre-caucus polls which show that huge Romney surge (see above). Since a big part of Gingrich & company's criticism of Romney is that he can never put together a coalition of a majority of voters, that argument could fall through as early as Nevada, the fifth contest of the Republican Primary. Then, as shown in the last two paragraphs, that could very well lead to winning 50 percent of the vote in a lot more states.

For now, our eyes turn to Nevada. The number to watch for: 50. Will Romney break it, or won't he? Gingrich would rather finish 25 points back of Romney's 45 than 20 points back of Romney's 55. (I swear that makes sense in my head.)

Until next time.

Thursday, February 02, 2012

Republican Delegate Standings, February Polling

(Note: if you've arrived here via a google search, the standings are probably out of date. Click here for the latest coverage.)
Yesterday, I relayed the competing estimates of each candidate's delegates in the GOP Primary. The CNN Standings, MSNBC Standings, and Real Clear Politics Standings can't seem to agree on their projections. I wrote about why here.

Factoring in each of their projections gives us the following general GOP Primary Standings (represented in ranges):
1. Romney: 65-84
2. Gingrich: 23-27
3/4. Santorum: 6-11
3/4. Paul: 3-10

And I said yesterday, important numbers to keep in mind:
Total possible delegates: 2286
Number needed for majority: 1144

Where do they go from here? I'm glad you asked.

Below are the February contests and their delegate totals. (I'll number them in chronological order. So, Iowa was 1, New Hampshire was 2, South Carolina was 3, and Florida was 4.) It's worth noting that there are 128 total delegates up for grabs in February. The total doled out in January? Only 115. Just like the three NonRoms keep reminding us, there's a long way to go.

I looked for polls in each of these states, but they were all too outdated. All of them were run before Florida, and some before Iowa. (I have to believe polls are in the field as I write this, though, so stay tuned.) Still, this schedule will help set the stage for the next few weeks, and I'll be sure to reference it in the posts still to come. Therefore, I'll simply post the date of the last unreliable poll underneath each one; just don't take much stock in them. I'll also add a thought or two on each of the contests, though they'll get more attention as they draw closer.

Saturday, February 4
5. Nevada Caucus--28 delegates
Last poll: Las Vegas Review-Journal, 12/12-12/20
1. Romney--33 (up 4)
2. Gingrich--29
3. Paul--13
4. Santorum--3

Note on Nevada Caucus: More on this tomorrow in the Nevada Caucus Preview.

Saturday, February 4 to Saturday, February 11
6. Maine Caucus--24 delegates
Last poll: Public Policy Polling, 10/28-10/31
1. Romney--24 (up 6)
2. Gingrich--18
3. Paul--4
4. Santorum--2

Note on Maine Caucus: Why the range of dates? Maine leaves it up to their municipalities to determine when they'll hold their caucus between February 4 and February 11. Kind of cool. Also, this might be Ron Paul's best chance to win a state, so that's always exciting.

Tuesday, February 7
T7. Colorado Caucus--36 delegates
Last poll: PPP, 12/1-12/4
1. Gingrich--37 (up 19)
2. Romney--18
3. Paul--6
4. Santorum--4

Note on Colorado Caucus: Rick Santorum is counting on Colorado to restore his campaign's legitimacy. Yesterday, he drove home his points against Gingrich in his attempt to become the anti-Romney candidate. The poll above--where Santorum is far back with 4 points--means nothing. Santorum barely registered anywhere before his meteoric rise at the turn of the year before Iowa. If Paul wins Maine and Santorum shows well in Colorado (and Gingrich also looks to have some natural popularity in the state), we'll see the Romney campaign lose some steam.

T7. Minnesota Caucus--40 delegates
Last poll: PPP, 1/21-1/22
1. Gingrich--36 (up 18)
2. Romney--18
3. Santorum--17
4. Paul--13

Note on Minnesota Caucus: The weightiest of the February contests, Gingrich had an enormous lead two weeks ago. But that was during his peak--South Carolina weekend. It'll be interesting to see where these numbers end up. If Gingrich maintains his lead, Minnesota could deliver him a nice win. Now I'm starting to think that if Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich could get on the same page between now and Tuesday, and each spend all their time in one state (Paul in Maine, Santorum on Colorado, Gingrich in Minnesota), Romney's delegate count would certainly be curtailed. None of them can actually win a majority of the delegates. Their only hope is ensuring Romney can't, either.

T7. Missouri Primary--0 delegates
Note on Missouri Primary: The February 7 primary will not determine delegates. That will be settled by the March 17 caucuses, when 52 delegates will be awarded.

Saturday, February 18
10. Guam! (Caucus)--9 delegates
I got nothing here.

Tuesday, February 28
T11. Arizona Primary--29 delegates
Last poll
PPP, 11/17-11/20
Gingrich--28 (up 5)

Note on Arizona Primary: Arizona's delegation of 29 is after a 50 percent penalty for holding it too early halved their original total of 58. Its November poll above is meaningles. It's worth noting that this is a winner-take-all state. We might see the candidates cede it to Romney.

T11. Michigan Primary--30
Last poll
EPIC-MRA, 1/25-1/30
Romney--31 (up 5)

Note on Michigan Primary: It's one of several home states for Romney (Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Utah), but his debate comments about allowing GM to fail might not play well. Still, he should be able to win the state. It's a loooong away, though.

Of the six February states:
Gingrich leads 3 (Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona)
Romney leads 3 (Nevada, Maine, Michigan)
GOP National polls:
Gallup Tracking 1/27 - 1/31
1. Romney--31 (up 5)
2. Gingrich--26
3. Santorum--16
4. Paul--11

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl, 1/22 - 1/24
1. Gingrich--37 (up 9)
2. Romney--28
3. Santorum--18
4. Paul--12

Rasmussen Reports, 1/23 - 1/23
1. Gingrich--35 (up 7)
2. Romney--28
3. Santorum--16
4. Paul--10

CBS News/NY Times
1. Romney--28 (up 7)
2. Gingrich--21
3. Santoroum--16
4. Paul--15

Real Clear Politics Average of the four:
1. Gingrich--29.8 (up 1)
2. Romney--28.8
3. Santorum--16.5
4. Paul--12.0

Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Florida Primary Analysis

With Mitt Romney's massive win last night, the politics of the 2012 Republican Primary have experienced a paradigm shift. As January turns to February and Romney's lead extends (more on this in a bit), Romney's rivals will no longer look to directly compete with and defeat Romney in primaries and caucuses. Instead, from here on out, they'll simply looking to slow Romney down, keep him under 50 percent of possible delegates, and then hope that with the right breaks and momentum shifts, support comes to them by, or at, the Republican National Convention.

Of course, there's some irony here. The fact that all three other candidates are counting on this long-game strategy ensures that all three other candidates continue to split the anti-Romney vote. Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, for example, remain in the race, hoping to ultimately be the clear NonRom. By doing so, however, the conservative base cannot rally around one of them to actually be it.

Still, the math supports that the candidates are not crazy in their rational. The Republican Primary Delegate Standings vary depending on your source, but they all remind us that the young primary is really, really young. After the Florida results, here's what we have for the GOP Primary Standings across a few media outlets. Each shows their estimations of the Republican delegates for the 2012 Republican Primary.

CNN Standings:
1. Romney--84
2. Gingrich--27
3. Paul--10
4. Santorum--8

MSNBC Standings:
1. Romney--70
2. Gingrich--23
3. Santorum--11
4. Paul--6

Real Clear Politics Standings:
1. Romney--65
2. Gingrich--25
3. Santorum--6
4. Paul--3

While you keep those numbers in mind, here are two more:
Total possible delegates: 2286
Number needed for majority: 1144

Thus, if we take Romney's largest delegate estimation--84--he is a scant 7.3 percent of the way to the 1144 necessary. With numbers like that, can you blame the GOP candidates for remaining in the race, especially with so much uncertainty with Romney?

Here's a quick look at the statuses of the candidacies, in reverse order of their finish last night, after Florida and heading into the February contests.

4. Ron Paul--7% of the Florida vote
Florida analysis: Ron Paul punted Florida weeks ago. Why? It's a winner-take-all state! And Ron Paul has no shot at winning any relevant state (sorry, Maine). His constituency might be a minority so cacophonous that it sounds like a majority, but it certainly is not one. Therefore, it was wise not to use resources in a state where he has no chance at winning any delegates.
Moving forward: Caucus states!

February 4: Nevada (caucus)--28 delegates
February 4–11: Maine (caucus)--24 delegates
February 7: Colorado (caucus)--36, Minnesota (caucus)--40, Missouri (Straw Poll, won't count)

Caucuses are where that loud, organized minority can do well. They're made for Ron Paul, and he knows it. Look for Paul to score delegates in all of these states, especially kooky Maine. (Yes, that was two Maine digs in one section. Apologies to Uncle Ralph and Aunt Sandy.)

3. Rick Santorum--13%
Florida analysis: Like Paul, Santorum put relatively little time into Florida. He left the state early to get a jump on the caucus states (and also to nurse a sick but thankfully improving daughter).
Moving forward: Rick Santorum's speech and tactics have zeroed in on a two-step strategy.

  • Step 1: Go after Gingrich. Romney will continue to truck along around 40 percent--give or take, depending on the geography--and the way to beat him is to consolidate the remaining 60 percent. For Santorum, that means removing Newt Gingrich from the equation.

  • Step 2: Emerge as the final and strongest anti-Romney candidate, there for every Republican who was nervous about a Romney nomination and yet was terrified of a Gingrich candidacy. Santorum even pointed out that Gingrich, after his South Carolina triumph, had his shot, but then he "became the issue," which sank his Florida chances. Republicans wouldn't want that repeated in the general election.
Santorum's speech last night tried to appeal to that base. He chided the Romney/Gingrich mudslinging, saying "Republicans can do better." He wants to be the defender of the Republican Party. And, of course, he continues to stay on message: he has been a true conservative across the board during his entire career, and his rivals can't say the same. I'd argue his strategy here is as much to compete for the nomination as it is to be the clear-cut choice for the VP nod from Romney.

Look for Santorum to focus on Nevada, Colorado, and Missouri over the next month.

2. Newt Gingrich--32%
Florida analysis: After his trounce in South Carolina, the 14-point loss in Florida is a major disappointment. His mojo was stymied, leading many to say that money is more powerful than momentum. Indeed, Romney outspent Gingrich by a wide margin. The commonly relayed 5 to 1 ratio was ultimately archaic; it was reported on January 27. I saw a graphic on CNN last night that showed Romney ultimately outspent Gingrich by an 8 to 1 margin ($5.7 million to $700,000), and if you factor in their Super PACs, Romney's number cranks up to $13.3 million to Gingrich's 2.4. (Santorum and Paul? Zero and zero, respectively.) A Wesleyan University professor called the spending a "one-sided domination." The ads from both sides, of course, were overwhelmingly venemous. It's believed that of all the Florida ads, 92 percent were negative. The Romney SuperPAC "Restore Our Future," ran $10.7 million worth of ads, and $9.9 million of them attacked the former Speaker. Yikes. It's understandable why Gingrich's numbers collapsed down the stretch, much like they did in December when Romney employed the same tactic in Iowa.
Moving forward: Look no further than the Gingrich signs at his speech last night: "46 States to Go."

Gingrich, last night, characterized the primary as, now, a two-person race: the "conservative leader against the Massachusetts Moderate." In other words, give up on Santorum--his lowly 13 percent, after all, was only six points higher than Ron Paul--shows that he's out of it. Don't throw away your vote, Gingrich would have you believe.

Gingrich's plan, clearly, is to be the last man standing with Romney. He wants to lead a conservative coalition majority against the man who can't seem to reach 50 percent support anywhere, despite his outstanding organization across the country, his unparalleled war chest, and the fact that he's been running since 2007.

To get the conservative Republicans across the country salivating, Gingrich ran off a list of specifics--what he would do on his first day in office. These pieces of steak included repealing "Obamacare," abolishing the Presidents czars, repealing the Presidents anti-religious acts, and signing the Keystone Pipeline contract. All of those are wildly unpopular with the conservative ranks, and Gingrich made a direct appeal to the dissatisfied Republican masses. Gingrich prides himself on being the candidate of specifics and ideas. These were it, and they'd contrast deeply to Romney's speech (more on that below).

Moving forward, Gingrich has his eyes on lengthening this process. He feels he can win most southern states--with good reason, too, after his major South Carolina victory and his success in Florida's panhandle last night. If Romney is limited by proportional delegation allocations and Gingrich southern victories, to say nothing of Santorum's conservative crusaded and Ron Paul's fanatical minority each earning delegates, there's a very real chance that Romney does not eclipse 50 percent for a few months. Indeed, he predicts the Republican Primary will probably last six months!

Now, will Gingrich have the money to sustain his desperate strategy? He probably won't. But who will have the money to sustain him? Super PACS! The exact kind of organization repudiated by Gingrich for months. Oh, the irony.

1. Mitt Romney--46%
Florida analysis: Big win. Huge win. Gargantuan win. With one primary, Romney went from on the ropes to, once again, the prohibitive favorite. He did it by excelling at last week's debates, where Gingrich finally floundered.
Moving forward: He's obviously in the driver's seat. He has the delegate lead and a boatload of money. Moreover, the money will come in more than ever now. Gingrich says his numbers are still strong nationally--and they are--but that won't last. People love supporting a winner. Romney's poll numbers will rise across the nation, paralleling his mounting campaign coffer. Things are looking up for the Romney Campaign.

That being said, his speech last night was disappointing, to say the least. I'm in the midst of writing a thesis on the Election of 1948, and Romney's speech last night was eerily reminiscent of Thomas Dewey's failed election. Both were the huge favorite, and both said nothing of any substance that could potentially damage their chances. Romney delivered platitude after platitude ("We want to restore America"?), and only attacked Obama policies, rather than substitute them with his own. ("We believe in the America that challenges each of us to be better and bigger than ourselves." Does that even make sense?). It was the exact opposite of the Gingrich speech. Rather than ever saying what he was going to do (other than build the strongest military in the history of the world, which the US already has and is not relinquishing any time soon), he's telling his party to trust that he will do something. Truly lame, and, for all the Republican attacks on President Obama's "Hope and Change" speeches of four years ago, seriously hypocritical.

More on the upcoming races over the next few days! See you then.


Monday, January 30, 2012

Florida Primary Preview

Here is your Florida Primary Primer--seven questions that interest me heading into the Florida Primary:

1. How will Florida's political geography break down? Florida, politically, is a fascinating state. So often we look at states and see a rather monolithic structure (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Massachusetts, most states in the Midwest), but just as often we see a two-stone makeup (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and others with a couple deep blue cities surrounded by a massive red countryside). Rare is the state, however, that can be broken into three demographic areas; Florida can.

The Sunshine State has three relatively neat divisions. Up in the panhandle, we see a Southern conservatism, one that more closely resembles South Carolinian ideologies than they do the beliefs of their South Floridian statemates. It's evangelical country, and we can expect Santorum and Gingrich to do well there. How much better Gingrich does than Santorum might determine Gingrich's overall chances at the state. Perhaps Gingrich will benefit the most here, as his Georgian blood was bred next door.

Moving south to the central part of Florida, we move into Transplant Country. These are Seniors from northern areas and cities throughout the country who moved down for their near- and/or full-fledged retirement years. Here we can obviously expect Mitt Romney to do well, especially since a strong fiscal manager seems to be their best bet to ensure those social security checks keep coming in.

Third and most southern we have diversity. There are whites and Latinos, Christian and Jewish voters, native Floridians and elderly transplants. This will be where the state is won, and of all the demographics in this area, it's the Latinos that are most politically volatile. Which transitions to...

2. Who will win the Latino vote? The Washington Post writes that the Latino voting bloc is up for grabs. While historically the Floridian Latino community was comprised mostly of conservative Cubans--usually anti-Castro refuges--recently cities like Miami have welcomed a wider diversity of Hispanics, and the second generation Cubans aren't as conservative as their parents were. Indeed, a sizeable 13.1 percent of Florida is Latino, says the Pew Hispanic Center, and a majority of them are now registered Democrats, a contrast from six years earlier when they largely sided with the GOP. Thus, what would presumably have been a Gingrich/Santorum vote may edge toward Romney.

With the other two sections of Florida seemingly split between Gingrich and Romney, the candidate who consolidates the Latino vote is likely to be the overall winner of Florida and would earn all 50 of the state's winner-take-all delegates. Can Romney hold onto their moderating opinions, though? The LA Times is skeptical, citing Romney's extraordinarily wealth as a turn-off to working Latino families. His father might have been a Mexican immigrant, but his aggressive stance toward immigration could hurt him.

Still, if Latinos are moderating in Florida, I see Romney winning close to 40 percent of them, with Gingrich about 10 points behind, and Santorum and Paul splitting the remaining third. Watch for these numbers in the Exit Polling. They might make the difference.

3. Does Romney win convincingly enough to wrap up the nomination? A double-digit win might make his nomination a formality, and recent Florida polls seem to make this a probability. A narrow win, however--even with a winner-take-all state--will keep his challengers very much viable. What he doesn't want is a close second place finish from Gingrich with Santorum way back of the two. If Santorum subsequently drops out, Gingrich would finally consolidate all the conservative vote, and he'd do it early enough where it could make a difference in the month leading up to Super Tuesday. Romney either needs to be the presumptive nominee by Super Tuesday, or he needs the conservative base to stay divided through the March 6 contest.

4. Can Gingrich stay alive with a distant second place? He says he will take his candidacy all the way to the Republican Convention. He says that the delegate math plain isn't there for Romney. "There’s no evidence anywhere that Romney’s getting anywhere near 50 percent. Gradually, conservatives are consolidating." It's actually a great point, one worth taking a closer look at if Romney wins and Gingrich and/or Santorum press on. If Romney doesn't win 50 percent of the delegates by the last primary (June 26 in Utah), they must settle the nomination at the convention.

Now, conventional wisdom (see what I did there?) is that once a nominee does well enough in the early states, his competitors fall by the wayside and support the leader. But if Gingrich takes his Melvillian vengeance to the extreme--and plucky Ron Paul remains to shape the debate for as long as possible--Romney's push for 50 percent of the delegates could be limited, and we could find ourselves not knowing the nominee heading into Tampa convention at the end of August.

It's worth noting that this isn't totally far-fetched. Gingrich, after all, still leads national polls. He says as long as Romney isn't able to focus on a state and "carpet bomb" the airwaves with negative attacks, he's the preferred Republican on the real issues. We'll see.

5. Can Santorum do well enough to be a viable "Anti-RomNewt"? Is it me, or does it seem like more than half the party can't stand Romney and the other half can't stand Gingrich? It goes without saying that about 10 percent of the party loves Ron Paul, but the other 90 percent would rank him fourth of the four. Is it possible, then, that the entire party can agree on Rick Santorum as their second favorite and, more importantly, dub him the "I could live with him" candidate? It's possible.

I think Rick Santorum is banking on the party ultimately coming to that realization. He's hoping that they'll eventually say, "There's no way we can nominate a Massachusetts moderate Mormon or a hothead former Speaker who has twice as many enemies as friends." And if they do, Santorum is waiting there with open arms. That's why I think Santorum stays in this race, even after finishing a distant third in Florida.

6. What can we expect from Ron Paul? The most passionate eight percent of the vote you've ever seen.

7. What's next? Caucuses! Specifically, Nevada on February 4th, Maine starting on the 4th and going to the 11th (weird), and Colorado and Minnesota on the 7th. That's 128 delegates between them, which is more than the first four caucuses combined (thanks to Florida's 50 percent penalty). Starting on Saturday, it'll be a fun week if Romney hasn't sewn it up. And you know what caucuses means... Ron Paul supporters!

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Happy Florida!


Sunday, January 29, 2012

Cain Endorses Gingrich, Sausage Grinders

Citing bold ideas and the former Speaker's patriotism, Herman Cain endorsed Newt Gingrich yesterday. It was an interesting endorsement, to say the least. When explaining his reasoning, Cain waxed poetic on Gingrich's commitment to country and a certain household appliance.

"There are many reasons, but one of the biggest reasons is that I know that Speaker Gingrich is a patriot," Cain reasoned. "Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas and I also know that Speaker Gingrich is running for president and going through this sausage grinder. I know what this sausage grinder is all about. I know that he is going through this sausage grinder because he cares about the future of the United States of America."

The sausage grinder could not be reached for comment.

I'm skeptical of Cain's impact at this point. Though he did win the Florida Straw Poll back in September, the former Godfather Pizza CEO saw his numbers collapse across the board by the end of December, when he became the first of the Final Eight Republicans to withdraw.

Still, Gingrich could use all the help he can get. The latest Florida polls now show that Mitt Romney has solidified and maintained about an 8-point lead across the board in the polls. Of the last six polls taken in the last four days, Romney holds between a 7- and 9-point lead in all of them. One can't help but think that their consistency reveals their accuracy. Barring a major shake up in the next two days, we can fully expect that Romney wins by 7 to 10 points on Tuesday. And remember, only six days ago, Gingrich was sporting a lead after his South Carolina triumph.

Thus, with his Thursday debate a miserable failure, yesterday we saw Gingrich return to the only reason Romney never had the nomination wrapped up in the first place. Gingrich insisted he was the true conservative who can defeat President Obama in November: "We have to have a conservative," he explained, "Otherwise we're going to be as frustrated with the Republican as we were with the Democrat." In other words, according to Gingrich, nominating Romney will hover dangerously close to four more years of the Presisident.

Will the reminder work? Or is the conservative base resigned to a Romney nomination? I'll have a Florida Primary Preview tomorrow. We'll look at the latest developments of these two candidacies, and see what, if anything, Rick Santorum has left in the tank.
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