http://rpc.technorati.com/rpc/ping Add to Technorati Favorites Presidential Politics for America: When Will Santorum Drop Out?

Sunday, April 01, 2012

When Will Santorum Drop Out?

Yesterday, I estimated that Mitt Romney will eclipse 1,144 delegates by either May 29's Texas Primary or June 5's five-primary day, which includes California.  I closed the column, however, with the acknowledgement that it didn't really matter when he did it.  It's inevitable that he will reach it, and that's all that really matters.  What is less predictable is when his chief opponent, Rick Santorum, will pack it up and return to Pennsylvania (and, probably, start positioning himself for VP and, if he fails at that also, start game-planning for another presidential run in 2016).

I actually think we'll see that withdrawal in 23 days.  Today, April 1, is likely the last month of Rick Santorum 2012.  Incidentally, I think Ron Paul will be the last to concede, waiting at least through his home state of Texas on May 29.  Paul really will wait until Romney reaches 1,144.  Of course, no one cares anymore.  (Speaking of no one caring, I'll address Newt Gingrich some other time.  He's a mystery.  I need more time to ruminate.)

So when exactly might the Santorum withdrawal happen?  This week we'll see three primaries, all on April 3--Wisconsin, Maryland, and Washington DC.  Santorum will lose all three.  Yet, despite the campaign's darkest days, Santorum will not withdraw.  Why not?  Because he would have zero momentum moving forward into the rest of his career.  He'll want to go out on a win.

Thus, after his three losses on Tuesday, he'll lay low the rest of the month.  He'll refrain from saying anything negative about Romney, and he won't spend any money as he tries to withdraw in the black.  On April 21 is Missouri Part III.  Despite hemorrhaging momentum and support, he might be able to hang on to the Show Me State.  With his home state just three days later, however, he won't drop out quite yet.

On April 24 are the states of New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Santorum's Pennsylvania.  Santorum will spend all his time in Pennsylvania in the days leading up to it.  He'll do whatever it takes to win it, including completely ignoring the other four states of the day, getting soundly beaten in all of them.

But he'll win Pennsylvania.  And he'll give a primetime speech in Pennsylvania.  And he'll thank Pennsylvanians for the win.  And he'll soak in the support of the home crowd.  And he'll thank the country for their support.  And then, with a fragment of momentum, with a crowd chanting his name, he'll preach about Republican unity, he'll throw his support behind Mitt Romney, and he'll bow out with his best impression of grace.

No comments:

cash advance

Cash Advance Loans