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Friday, March 09, 2012

Calendar and Math

Yesterday, I wrote that the Romney Campaign used flawed logic when asserting their uncatchable position in front of the Republican Primary, explaining that they could not be caught because the delegate math wasn't there for Romney’s competitors. Specifically, I argued that, "The goal of the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns . . . is to just get the primary to the convention, and then see what happens." Thus, they'll stay in the race if there's any chance Romney's momentum could be slowed enough to keep him from securing 1,144 delegates before the end of the primary season, which ends on June 26 with the Utah Primary (as shown below).

How do I like their chances to do that? We need two pieces of information before we can begin to draw conclusions. Below is that information. Tomorrow are the conclusions.

First, let's look at the calendar. Here is the complete Republican Primary schedule (with comments):
January 3: Iowa (caucus) -- SANTORUM
January 10: New Hampshire (primary) -- ROMNEY
January 21: South Carolina (primary) -- GINGRICH
January 31: Florida (primary) -- ROMNEY
February 4: Nevada (caucus) -- ROMNEY
February 11: Maine (caucus) --ROMNEY
February 7: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri (primary) -- SANTORUM SWEEP
February 28: Arizona (primary), Michigan (primary), Wyoming Caucus--ROMNEY SWEEP
March 3: Washington(caucus)--ROMNEY
March 6: (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)--ROMNEY
Georgia (primary)--GINGRICH
Idaho (caucus)--ROMNEY
Massachusetts (primary)--ROMNEY
North Dakota (caucus)--SANTORUM
Ohio (primary)--ROMNEY
Oklahoma (primary)--SANTORUM
Tennessee (primary)--SANTORUM
Vermont (primary)--ROMNEY
Virginia (primary)--ROMNEY
-----
March 10:Kansas (caucus)--40 delegates (Should vote like Oklahoma/Tennessee)
Guam (caucus)--9 (Respect the territories)
Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)--9 (I SAID RESPECT THEM!)
US Virgin Islands (caucus)--9 (Okay, you can laugh.)
=67 combined on March 10
-----
March 13:Alabama (primary)--50 (One of two southern primaries on 3/13)
Mississippi (primary)--40 (ditto)
American Samoa (caucus)--9 (*snicker*)
Hawaii (caucus)--20 (I should go cover this on site)
=119 on March 13
-----
March 17: Missouri (Caucus)--52 (actually counts this time)
March 18: Puerto Rico (Caucus)--23 (Winner Take All)
March 20: Illinois (indescribable)--69 (big one)
March 24: Louisiana (primary)--46 (proportional, southern)
-----
April 3:Wisconsin (primary)--42 (Winner Take All)
Maryland (primary)--37 (Winner Take All)
Washington DC (primary)--19 (Winner Take All)
=98 on April 3
-----
April 24: New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island (231 northeast delegates)
May 8: North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia (132 southern-like delegates)
May 15: Nebraska, Oregon (63 delegates)
May 22: Kentucky, Arkansas (91 delegates--southern)
May 29: Texas (proportional primary--155 delegates, southern)
June 5: California (172… the biggest prize), New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico (279 June 5 delegates—single largest day remaining, and you have to like Romney in the two biggest)
June 26: Utah (40 delegates)
=Total remaining pledged delegates: 1,475

The second piece of information--the delegate count. The Real Clear Politics Standings are as follows:
1. Romney--409 (54.97% of delegates)
2. Santorum--163
3. Gingrich--111
4. Paul--61

Finally, based on those two pieces of information, keep this delegate math in mind as we move forward:
Total remaining pledged delegates: 1,475
Amount of remaining delegates needed for Romney to secure the nomination: 1,144 - 409=735
Percentage of remaining delegates Romney needs to secure the nomination by the end of the primary season (and without superdelegates making up the difference): 735/1,475=49.8

So, what do you think? Can Romney win 49.8 percent of the remaining delegates? Or can the other three candidates, combined, keep him from 1,144?

I’ll be back this weekend with my thoughts.

-IC

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