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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Updated GOP Primary Standings, March 14

(Note: If you came here via a google search, or even if you didn't, these standings are outdated. Click here for the latest standings and coverage.)


Despite Rick Santorum's triumphant victories last night, he pulled no closer to Mitt Romney in the delegate projections. In fact, he fell further behind. Remember, in addition to the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Hawaii and the American Samoa held caucuses as well. Since Santorum won in a squeaker over both rivals in states that allocate delegates proportionally, he'll only garner a handful more delegates than them in those contests. Romney, meanwhile, won big in the islands. In one American Samoa romp, Romney made up the deficit accrued by Alabama and Mississippi. Then, with his victory in Hawaii, Romney became yesterday's delegate winner.

Therefore, even before factoring in Romney's likely victory in Hawaii, CNN projects that both Romney and Santorum picked up 31 delegates yesterday. Hawaii will send Romney up even further. Real Clear Politics has factored in American Samoa and most of Hawaii, so, according to their current projections, Romney picked up 40 delegates to Santorum's 35 (and Gingrich's 25). It's worth noting that in Alabama, both CNN and RCP have yet to allocate some delegates, but we can expect they'll be spread rather evenly. The point will hold: Mitt Romney won more delegates yesterday than Rick Santorum did.

Yet, in the momentum game, Rick Santorum--and Newt Gingrich, actually--made enormous gains on the "inevitable" nominee. The chances for the first brokered convention in modern history just ticked up.

Here are the latest
Republican Delegate Projections
CNN Standings
1. Romney--498
2. Santorum-239
3. Gingrich--139
4. Paul--69

Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--496
2. Santorum--236

4. Gingrich--142
3. Paul--67

Official (not counting unbound delegates)
1. Romney--432
2. Santorum--165
3. Gingrich--134
4. Paul--25

I'll update each of those as the websites do. I'll have spin from each campaign a bit later, and then we'll look forward to the upcoming contests. See you then.

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