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Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Super Tuesday Timeline

Random thought: what can we expect for a timeline tonight? How will the night unfold?

7:00 -- Romney surges ahead of the field, winning two states at the stroke of 7. Virginia and Vermont will waste no time giving Romney two wins under his belt. One hour later, Massachusetts will quickly be called for Romney. In total, we can expect about 100 of their 107 combined delegates to go to the Governor.

I'm curious if such an early triple triumph will affect the North Dakota, Idaho, and Alaska caucuses--Idaho and Alaska don't even start convening until after 8:00 EST. Remember, when caucuses meet, they discuss anything they'd like before their vote. If Romney has already won three states, might take it upon themselves to vote for Romney and help unify the party. It's not a primary, where voting has been going on all day. It's a caucus. They'll talk to each other before voting. They might rally. They'll factor in the day's developments, including Romney's three early victories. We might ultimately see the early calls of Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia translate to three more wins for Romney in the three caucus states.

Also at 7, the Georgia polls close. Gingrich should win it immediately.

7:01-7:30 -- We'll wait for the significant Ohio Primary to close its polls. Then we intently follow its returns.

8:00 -- Massachusetts polls close and the state is immediately called for Romney, giving him a third state before the caucuses meet. Oklahoma and Tennessee polls close. Alaska caucuses convene.

9:00 -- Idaho convenes. Results within an hour or two.

10:00 -- North Dakota caucuses end.

12:00 -- Alaska caucuses end.

12:01 -- I go to sleep.

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