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Saturday, March 10, 2012

Santorum Wins Kansas, Gains Nothing

Rick Santorum has won the Kansas caucuses. With 99 percent of the vote in, he won 52 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 21, Newt Gingrich's 14, and Ron Paul's 13.

The state allocates 40 delegates. Santorum will win somewhere north of 20, depending on the congressional splits. However, since Romney could land around 8, Santorum won't gain on Romney today. Remember that earlier, Romney won the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, probably earning all 18 delegates between the two. Thus, if Romney does get 8 delegates from Kansas, he'd reach 26. Santorum should reach 26 and could even clear 30, but the US Virgin Islands later tonight will probably join Romney's "territory" domination and give him 9 delegates more. We could see each candidate win 31 to 35 of today's 67 delegates.

Thus, we have a microcosm of the primary. Santorum wins a base state of the Republican Party, but Romney's lead is safe.

Tomorrow I finish the series--Can Romney Be Caught?

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