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Thursday, March 08, 2012

Romney's Flawed Logic

Mitt Romney is going to be the nominee of the Republican Party. It's inevitable. The campaign has grown borderline cocky. Yet, in their confidence, they seem to completely misread the objectives of their opponents.

Yesterday, the Romney campaign asserted that it would take "an act of God" for one of Romney's opponents to surpass his delegate count. They cited the difficult delegate math of a Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich comeback, explaining they'd have to win 65 and 70 percent of remaining delegates, respectively, to overtake Romney by the Republican National Convention. Since they have won 22 and 13 percent so far, it is decidedly unlikely that they could shift to taking 7 of every 10 delegate the rest of the way.

But here's the flawed logic of the Romney Campaign: overtaking Romney by the convention is not the goal of Santorum and Gingrich. If it was, then the Romney Campaign's logic would be sound. The goal of the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns, however, is to just get the primary to the convention, and then see what happens. As I referred to it on Tuesday, the convention would be the proverbial Game 7, where anything can happen. Who knows, if they get the primary that far, maybe they combine their delegates in an attempt to stop Romney and each have a future. Santorum-Gingrich 2012 (or vice versa, though if Santorum was happy with VP, he'd just take it from Romney to settle the primary once and for all). If Romney hasn't won the nomination by the end of the primary season (late June), there will be two months of questions--mainly from the conservative base of the party--surrounding the Romney Campaign, and perhaps there would even be pressure for Romney to withdraw (he wouldn't) or accept the VP position with another candidate (he'd sooner die). Those might be unlikely scenarios, but at a brokered convention, where havoc reigns supreme, anything can happen.

So, sure, Romney Campaign, they can't catch you with primary wins. But Santorum and Gingrich just want to get the primary to the convention, which means they stay in the contest, grind it out, and see what happens.

How do I fancy their chances to do that? For an answer, you'll just have to check back tomorrow.

-IC

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