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Sunday, March 04, 2012

Latest Primary Standings, Schedule, and Polls

(Note: If you came here via a google search, or even if you didn't, these standings are outdated. Click here for the latest standings and coverage.)


Super Tuesday Preview: Part I

We're almost 48 hours from the first primary results of long anticipated Super Tuesday, 2012. Over the next couple days, we'll see rapid developments across ten states as each of the four remaining candidates try to best position themselves for March 6's 410 available delegates, which account for about 19 percent of primary's total. This post will serve as a base to which we can refer for crucial data regarding my upcoming predictions, questions, and other hunches. Check back in frequently for those.

Below you will find the latest standings, primary schedule, and any polling I deem relevant.

Republican Delegate Counts
Projected
CNN Standings
1. Romney--207
2. Santorum--86
3. Paul--46
4. Gingrich--39

Real Clear Politics Standings (Has yet to award 14 of Washington's delegates)
1. Romney--173
2. Santorum--74
3. Paul--37
4. Gingrich--33

Wikipedia Standings
1. Romney--196
2. Santorum--78
3. Paul--56
4. Gingrich--51

Official (not counting unbound delegates, like Washington's)
1. Romney--136
2. Gingrich--32
3. Santorum--19
4. Paul--9
**********






Republican Primary Schedule (with comments)
Here is the GOP Primary Schedule from now until a week past "Super Tuesday":
January 3: Iowa (caucus) -- SANTORUM
January 10: New Hampshire (primary) -- ROMNEY
January 21: South Carolina (primary) -- GINGRICH
January 31: Florida (primary) -- ROMNEY
February 4: Nevada (caucus) -- ROMNEY
February 4–11: Maine (caucus) --ROMNEY
February 7: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri (primary) -- SANTORUM SWEEP
February 28:
Arizona (primary)--58 delegates (29 after 50% penalty) -- ROMNEY
Michigan (primary)--59 delegates (30 after 50% penalty) -- ROMNEY
March 3: Washington(caucus)--43 -- ROMNEY
-----

March 6: (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)--27 (Really? That many?)
Georgia (primary)--76 (biggest yet)
Idaho (caucus)--32 (Seems Ron Paul-ish to me)
Massachusetts (primary)--41 (Lock it up for Romney)
North Dakota (caucus)--28 (Another Paul-ish feel)
Ohio (primary)--66 (High noon for Santorum)
Oklahoma (primary)--43 (Big day for Texas's cap)
Tennessee (primary)--58 (surprisingly weighty)
Vermont (primary)--17 (how cute)
Virginia (primary)--49 (Gingrich/Santorum not on the ballot)
=437 combined on Super Tuesday (19.1% of total delegates)

-----
March 10:
Kansas (caucus)--40 (will it matter?)
Guam (caucus)--9 (Respect the territories)
Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)--9 (I SAID RESPECT THEM!)
US Virgin Islands (caucus)--9 (Okay, you can laugh.)
=67 combined on March 10
-----
March 13:
Alabama (primary)--50 (if it does matter, hold on to your seats!)
Mississippi (primary)--40 (ditto)
American Samoa (caucus)--9 (*snicker*)
Hawaii (caucus)--20 (I should go cover this on site)
=119 on March 13
**********


Locks for Romney: Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia
Further probables for Romney: none

Locks for Santorum: None
Probables for Santorum: Oklahoma (21-point lead at last check, but it's well before Romney's 2/28 sweep)

Locks for Gingrich: (Georgia... I hesitate, but he has double-digit leads in recent polling)
Further probables for Gingrich: None

Locks for Paul: None
Probables for Paul: None (Best shot Idaho and North Dakota)

Too close to call: Ohio (Romney/Santorum), Tennessee (Romney/Santorum)
Lacks information: Alaska (Romney/Santorum), Idaho (Romney/Paul), North Dakota (Paul/Romney/Santorum)

What that list alone tells us:
Romney starts the day at 3 states and can build to 8. We can probably pencil him in for a majority of the 10 states.
Santorum starts the day at 0 and can build to 5. We can pencil him for 2.
Gingrich will win one state and one state only. But it's the biggest one.
Paul has a shot at two states, which could mean all four candidates come away with at least one.
As of now, the smart bet for state wins is:
Romney--6 states
Santorum--2 states
Gingrich--1 state
Paul--1 state.
Romney might be coming away with a majority of states, but he's losing the biggest (Georgia) and has serious competition from Santorum in the second, third, and fifth biggest (Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma). Virginia is the fourth largest, and it's only Romney vs. Paul, so it'll likely be a Romney romp. A huge misstep by the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns (not getting on the ballot) comes back to bite them.

What to expect in future Super Tuesday previews:
A much closer look at each state.
Best case scenarios for each candidate.
Worst case scenarios for each candidate.
North Dakota jokes.
A long shot case for a Rick Santorum comeback.
A long shot case for a Newt Gingrich comeback.
Updated polls.
A realistic prediction for Super Tuesday and beyond.

Hope to see you back here. We have an exciting two days coming up!

-IC

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