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Sunday, February 19, 2012

Latest GOP Primary Delegates, Schedule, Polls

(Note: If you came here via a google search, or even if you didn't, these standings are outdated. Click here for the latest standings and coverage.)

In the midst of the 17-day break between primary contests (inaugurated by Maine on February 11 and closing with Michigan and Arizona on February 28), I'll spend the upcoming week taking stock of each of the four remaining campaigns, each candidate getting his own day. Before I do that, I think this post can be used as a helpful reference point to which I can link during this stretch.

There are three sections below. The first is the latest GOP primary standings from three websites I consider to be the most reliable in updating the delegate count. The second is the upcoming 2012 Republican Primary schedule. The third are the polls from five upcoming contests which I feel are the most significant (Arizona and Michigan on 2/28, Washington on 3/3, and the two weightiest Super Tuesday states, Ohio and Georgia). The polls will only come from the last ten days, the period since Santorum's February 7 sweep.

I'll be back tomorrow with the status of the dying Newt Gingrich campaign. See you then.

Republican Primary Standings
CNN Standings
1. Romney--127
2. Gingrich--38
3. Santorum--37
4. Paul--27

Real Clear Politics Standings
1. Romney--98
2. Santorum--44
3. Gingrich--32
4. Paul--20

Wikipedia Standings
1. Romney--123
2. Gingrich--45
3. Santorum--44
4. Paul--37

Official (not counting unbound delegates)
1. Romney--91
2. Gingrich--32
3. Paul--9
4. Santorum--4 (Seriously. Remember, all his wins were glorified straw polls)

Upcoming Republican Primary Schedule

Here is the GOP Primary Schedule through "Super Tuesday":
January 3: Iowa (caucus)
January 10: New Hampshire (primary)
January 21: South Carolina (primary)
January 31: Florida (primary)
February 4: Nevada (caucus)
February 4–11: Maine (caucus)
February 7: Colorado (caucus), Minnesota (caucus), Missouri (primary)
February 28:
Arizona (primary)--58 delegates (29 after 50% penalty)
Michigan (primary)--59 delegates (30 after 50% penalty)
March 3: Washington(caucus)--43 (lots of attention for the Great State Of!)
March 6: (
Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)--27 (Really? That many?)
Georgia (primary)--76 (biggest yet)
Idaho (caucus)--32 (Seems Ron Paul-ish to me)
Massachusetts (primary)--41 (Lock it up for Romney)
North Dakota (caucus)--28 (Another Paul-ish feel)
Ohio (primary)--66 (High noon for Gingrich?)
Oklahoma (primary)--43 (even flown over for the primaries)
Tennessee (primary)--58 (surprisingly weighty)
Vermont (primary)--17 (how cute)
Virginia (primary)--49 (Gingrich/Santorum not on the ballot)
=437 combined on Super Tuesday (19.1% of total delegates)

Republican Primary Polling (most recent polls at top)

February 28:

Michigan Primary (30 delegates, awarded by congressional district)
Mitchell/Rosetta Stone, 2/14 - 2/14, Margin of Error: 4.6
Santorum--34 (up 9 on Romney)
Gingrich--5 (yikes)

Inside MI Politics/MRG, 2/13 - 2/14, MoE: 3.5
Santorum--43 (Up 10)

Rasmussen Reports, 2/13 - 2/13, MoE: 4.0
Santorum--35 (Up 3)

Detroit News, 2/11 - 2/13, MoE: 4.4
Santorum--34 (up 4)

PPP (D), 2/10 - 2/12, MoE: 4.9
Santorum--39 (Up 15)

Average Santorum lead: 8.2
Trend: Santorum building

Arizona Primary (28 delegates, winner-take-all)
Rasmussen Reports, 2/16 - 2/16
Romney--39 (Up 8 on Santorum)

American Research Group, 2/13-2/14
Romney--38 (Up 7)

Average Romney lead on Santorum: 7.5
Trend: Flat

March 3:

Washington Caucus (43 delegates, non-binding proportional)
No polls done since 1/12-1/16.
That poll showed Romney at 26, Gingrich at 22, Santorum at 19, and Paul at 7. With Gingrich's collapse and Santorum's momentum we can expect Santorum to be on top at this point.

March 6:

Ohio Primary (66 delegates, proportional unless a candidate clears 50%)
Rasmussen Reports, 2/15 - 2/15
Santorum--42 (Up 18 on Romney)

Quinnipiac, 2/7 - 2/12
Santorum--36 (Up 7)

Average Santorum lead on Romney: 12.5
Trend: Santorum building

Georgia Primary (76 delegates, awarded proportionally)
Landmark/Rosetta Stone, 2/9 - 2/9
Gingrich--35 (Up 9 on Santorum, up 19 on Romney)
Romney--16 (wow, trending way down; was at 32 after Florida)

Mason-Dixon, 2/6 - 2/8
Gingrich--43 (Up 14 on Santorum, up 31 on Romney)

National Polls
Real Clear Politics Average based on the last six polls, each from a different organization, and all conducted and released in the last ten days:
1. Santorum--34.3 (Note, he leads ALL SIX POLLS, including two by double digits)
2. Romney--27.7 (second in all polls)
3. Gingrich--14.5 (third in five polls, last in
a CNN one)
4. Paul--12.3 (double digits in all six polls; reached 16% in the CNN)

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