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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

February 28 Primaries--Live Blog

February 28 Primary "live" blog. Kind of.
A running blog of numbers coming out of the 2012 Michigan Primary (with a little Arizona mixed in) and other bits of presidential politics. Check back for updates throughout the night! (And don't forget to read my preview of the two primaries from this morning, or my predictions over at Construction.) Most of the pre-results focus are on the Michigan exit polls.

10:52--the final post.
Puh-leeze. A CNN commentator just said that Romney was expected to win Michigan. Nice try.

If you want real coverage, I just posted my instant-reaction analysis here. Have a good night.

10:34With 80% reporting in Michigan, Mitt Romney is back to a 41-38 lead, about 30,000 votes.

As Romney takes the stage to boast and re-set his crosshairs on President Obama, I'm working on my final thoughts for the night. It looks like we won't know the Michigan delegate split until tomorrow, but we still learned some things. Check back in a few minutes for that. Good night and thanks for following.

10:21
Wow, huge mistake by the Santorum people to go on to stage right before CNN interrupted with the Romney call. They should have known to wait until after it. Much of Santorum's speech ended up being pre-empted by the CNN reporting.

10:17
CNN Projects Romney as the winner of the Michigan Primary. Told you.

10:09
Rick Santorum takes the stage after blowing a double-digit lead in the last week as he's heading toward a 4 to 5 point loss (42-37 now). I'm betting he doesn't make this speech about social issues.

10:07
With two-thirds of precincts reporting, Romney is holding at 40-36 and is up to a 30,000 lead. We can't be too far away from, at least, a popular vote call in favor of the former Massachusetts Governor.

9:58
Passed 60% of precincts and both Romney and Santorum have lost ground to the field, now only showing 40% and 36% support, respectively. Paul's at 12, Gingrich 7.

9:47
That might do it. At the moment we hit half of all precincts reporting, Mitt Romney's steady expansion of his lead has just tipped from 41-38 to 42-37, or about 20,000 votes. Santorum might chip into that lead by the end of the night, but it's unlikely he can overcome a 20,000 vote lead.

That being said, remember, 28 of the 30 delegates are awarded by district (two each), not by popular vote. There are 14 districts, and there's nothing guaranteeing that Romney wins a majority of those.

9:43
CNN says three delegates can be awarded to each of Romney and Santorum. Six down, twenty-four to go!

9:40We just passed 40% of precincts reporting, and Romney still holds a 41-38 lead. The vote lead is up to 11,500, with Romney tallying 169,000 votes to Santorum's 157,500.

Paul's at 12% and Gingrich at 6.

9:25
We've passed one-third of precincts reporting, and Santorum is maitaining his 41-38 lead. I guess this is a good time to refer you to my official Michigan predictions over at Construction, where I said Romney would win the popular vote with a 40-38 victory.

9:20
Mitt Romney has opened up at 10,000 vote lead as he maintains his 41-38 lead with 30% of precincts reporting.

9:15--Updated Republican Primary StandingsWith the Arizona win for Romney, here are the updated primary standings as of 9:15 PM EST on February 28. I'll use CNN and Real Clear Politics as reasonably accurate outlets.

CNN Standings, 2/28
1. Romney--156
2. Gingrich--38
3. Santorum--37
4. Paul--27

Real Clear Politics Standings, 2/28
1. Romney--128
2. Santorum--47
3. Gingrich--32
4. Paul--20

9:10
With one-quarter of precints now reporting--about 250,00 votes--Mitt Romney has 103,000 votes, or 41%, to Rick Santorum's 96,000, or 38%. Ron Paul is in 3rd with 11% and 28,000 votes, and Newt Gingrich brings up the rear with 7% and 17,000 votes.

9:08Mitt Romney might be taking control. With 23% reporting, his 41-38 lead now means over 8,000 votes.

9:06
Up to 20%, an Romney holding at 41-38 in Michigan, and the spread is 4,700 votes.

9:03
This just in from the "More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same" Department: Romney overwhelmingly won in Michigan among voters whose primary concern was the economy or electability.

9:02
With 19% reporting in Michigan, Romney storms into the lead! He's up 41-39 and has a nearly 4,000 vote lead.

9:00
Arizona polls close. CNN calls Arizona for Mitt Romney. He gets all 29 delegates. The exit polls suggest Romney at 44%, Santorum at 27, Gingrich 16, and Paul at 11.

The most notable part of this is Gingrich's better than expected performance. In fact, Santorum finished closer to Gingrich than he did to Romney.

8:59
Up to 16%, we're at 40% each! Santorum leads by about 200 votes of the 111,000 between them.

8:55
At 14%, still 40-39. 100,000 votes between the two leaders, and Santorum is leading by about 2,000.

Oh, and five minutes until the polls in Arizona start closing. We can expect a quick call--and 29 delegates--for Mitt Romney.

8:52
At 13%, Santorum drops a percentage point while Romney gains won. 40-39.

8:50
At 12%, Santorum expands his lead some more, now 41-38, and up to 2,700 votes. Is he pulling away?

It's notable that we have 100,000 votes in at this point. At the 100,000 mark, it's:
Santorum at about 42 thousand
Romney at about 40 thousand
Paul at about 10 thousand
Gingrich at 7 thousand.

Yes, that's 101. I did mental math and rounding.

8:48
Up to 11%, Santorum expands his lead to 41-39, or 2,300 votes.

8:46At 9%, Santorum back to a 40-39 lead, up nearly 1,000 votes with 67,000 between them.

8:44WOW! At 8%, we have 39-39. There are 60,000 votes between the two, with only 30 votes separating them.

8:41
Ron Paul speaking. He's at 11% of the vote. Looks like another double-digit night for the little libertarian that could. He just pointed out the recent transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy. One can understand why he got the second highest Democratic vote tonight!

8:39At 7%, Santorum holding at 40-39 and a 1,000 vote lead.

8:36At 6%, still at 40-39, but Santorum's lead up to 800 votes out of 43,000 combined between the two.

8:33
At 5%, Santorum back on top, 40-39%, but it's 93 votes out of 33,000 combined.

8:30At 4%, Romney catches Santorum at 40 percent. Romney holds a 200 vote lead (each at just over 13,000).

8:27
With 3% reporting, Santorum holds a 4 point lead, 42-38. (Paul 11, Gingrich 7.)

What we'll want to look most closely at is WHICH precints are reporting. Cities tend to go Romney, rural areas Santorum.

8:18
With 1% of precincts reporting, Rick Santorum is destroying Mitt Romney, 48-34. And that's why sample sizes have to be bigger than 100 people.

8:13
Also from MSNBC: 50 percent of today's voters are without college degrees, or, as Rick Santorum calls them, "not snobs."

8:08
From MSNBC. Percentage of primary voters who felt "electability" mattered most.
Florida: 45%
Michigan: 33%

Advantage: Santorum. Romney has consistently won the "electability" trends, while Santorum is largely considered unelectable in a general election.

8:04Timeline tonight:
8:00--Eastern Michigan polls close.
9:00--All of Michigan polls close. Most Arizona polls close.
?:??--We have a call on Michigan. If it's as close as recent polls suggest, it could be a very long night.

7:55
Five minutes until the first official Michigan votes are reported!

7:50CNN's bottom line: 41 percent of Michigan voters said Romney's ties to Michigan was important to them.

Advantage: Romney. Most projections had today's winner around 40 percent. Are there Romney voters out there who said that Romney's home-state ties were important to them but didn't vote for him? It seems unlikely. Moreover, couldn't there be some Romney supporters who voted for him without caring about his Michigan ties? I'd say so. Thus, I think we can say that Romney probably breaks 40 percent, which could very well be enough for the popular vote win.

But remember, delegates are not determined by state-wide popular vote! Santorum could still earn a split or win despite losing the popular vote.

7:34
Update on those numbers--19 percent of Democrats went for Paul.

A new one: less than half of Michigan voters strongly favor their candidate. Yikes.

7:15
From CNN: 50 percent of Democrats voted for Santorum, while 15 percent voted for Romney. (I'm assuming Paul did quite well with the other 35 percent.)

Advantage: Santorum! (Duh). Thus, of Romney/Santorum Republican and Independent voters, Romney must win by a margin of four or five percentage points to make that up.

6:41
A surprising 51 percent of Primary voters disapprove of the auto bailouts, while 43 percent approve, CNN reports. While it is a mostly Republican electorate, I'm still surprised that a majority of them were anti-bailout. Perhaps this legitimizes all four candidates being opposed to it. If a majority of Michigan Republicans were opposed to it, then one can only assume almost all nation-wide Republicans are, too.

Advantage: Romney. More than anyone, he's been associated with being against the auto-bailout, while Santorum has more strength with manufacturing, and used Romney's bailout stance in an effort to attract Democrats.

6:05
Whoa! More Michigan exit polling from CNN:
Moderate/Liberal voters: 40 percent
Somewhat conservative: 30
Very conservative: 30

CNN went on to confirm MSNBC's numbers from below.

Advantage: tie. While Democrats certainly are here to cause havoc in the Republican Primary, there are moderate Republicans who certainly are more attracted to Romney than Santorum. While the "liberals" of this statistic are here to extend the primary, most of the moderates could very well be turning out for Romney.

5:30Check out exit poll numbers of the Democrat/Independent/Republican voter split in the GOP's side of the primary compared to four years ago. I saw this on MSNBC. If I find the online source, I'll link it.

2008Democrat: 7%
Independent: 25%
Republican: 68%

2012Democrat: 10% (+3 from 2008)
Independent: 31% (+6)
Republican: 59% (-9)

Advantage: Santorum! What a drop off of Republicans. I wrote earlier today in my preview about the movement to get Democrats to the polls to vote against a Romney mini-sweep today. These Michigan exit polls might be the effects of that.

What's interesting is that Romney has supposedly been the "electable" candidate for the general election. If he loses Democrats and Independents from his home state tonight, that says another story. No Democrat or Independent who plans to vote for him in the general election would vote against him tonight.

Of course, mark my words, if Romney loses or barely wins Michigan, he will surely blame Democratic involvement, and swear that he won a majority of Republicans. More exit polls from tonight's coverage across the channels will clarify if that's indeed true. Stay tuned.

3 comments:

Ben said...

I think Santorum has this.

Anonymous said...

When do we know the winner?

IC said...

Ben: I say Santorum is 6:5 to Romney's 4:5.

Anon: Well, the real results start coming in at 8, then a bulk more at 9... but when do we know the winner? It might be midnight. (All Answers in EST.)

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