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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Republican Primary Schedule

I'm eager to look forward to Florida and beyond, but let's set things up first. The Republican Primary schedule below and tomorrow's LIVE BLOG for Florida Debate #2 should set the stage for the analysis in the days to come. I'm calling Friday through Sunday "Florida Weekend." It deserves its own title. You thought the South Carolina Primary was important, but the 2012 Florida Republican Primary could very well be the moment where A) Mitt Romney wins the nomination, B) Newt Gingrich wins the nomination, or C) The Republican Party collapses in on itself like a dying Red Giant gasping for its last bits of helium.

Here is the GOP Primary Schedule through "Super Tuesday":
January 3: Iowa (caucus)--WINNER: Santorum
January 10: New Hampshire (primary)--WINNER: Romney
January 21: South Carolina (primary)--WINNER: Gingrich
**Note: three different winners in the first three states for the first time in history**
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January 31: Florida (primary)--99 delegates (50 after 50% penalty)
February 4: Nevada (caucus)--28 delegates
February 4–11: Maine (caucus)--24 delegates
February 7: Colorado (caucus)--36, Minnesota (caucus)--40, Missouri (primary, won't count)
February 28: Arizona (primary)--58 (29 with 50% penalty), Michigan (primary)--59 (30 with 50% penalty)
March 3: Washington (caucus)--43
March 6: (Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus), Georgia (primary), Idaho (caucus), Massachusetts (primary), North Dakota (caucus), Ohio (primary), Oklahoma (primary), Tennessee (primary), Vermont (primary), Virginia (primary)--437 combined

In theory, if the nominee isn't clear by Florida's conclusion, the nominee should be known by Super Tuesday, so I won't post what lies beyond. If you're curious, though, click on the link at the top of this entry. Also, it's notable that with the exception of upcoming Florida, all of these states give "proportional" allocations. It's not until the primaries held on April 3 and later where we'll see allocations that are "winner-take-all."

So what does it all mean? How does this schedule affect the candidates and the 2012 Republican Primary? What role can and will Florida play? Can Mitt Romney hold on? Can Newt take the delegate lead? How might the Republican Party react to a Romney-Gingrich showdown? Is there any remaining path to for Rick Santorum? To what extent is Ron Paul a factor?

Those are the types of questions we'll look to answer during Florida Weekend.

Before then, I hope to see you back here tomorrow night for the Florida Debate #2 (with, hopefully, Stephen Kurczy as my co-host!).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update. I look forward to Thursday commentary.

Any chance you can comment on the relationship between the State of the Union speech and the messages of the Republican campaigns?

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