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Monday, January 02, 2012

Percent Chance to Win the Republican Nomination

With one day before Iowa, below are the chances for each candidate to win the Republican nomination. Accompanying each are the most likely scenarios to affect their chances in either direction. For explanations, see previous post. (For odds, see the left side bar.)

1) Romney: 75% (Rises if a majority of the field remains in the race through the first three primaries; falls if Bachmann and Perry withdraw early.)

2) Gingrich: 10% (Rises with Perry surviving; collapses with Perry's early elimination.)

2) Santorum: 10% (Rises with Bachmann and Perry withdrawing early; falls if he doesn't finish top 2 in Iowa AND South Carolina. He MUST ignore New Hampshire and spend two weeks in South Carolina.)

4) Perry: 3% (Rises with a top 3 in Iowa; falls with anything worse.)

5) Huntsman: 1% (Rises with top 2 in New Hampshire; falls and he withdraws with 4th or worse.)

6) Paul: 0.5% (Basically no shot, but if he can go 1-2 in Iowa and New Hampshire, he might be able to string enough second and third places the rest of the way to make the process last until the Republican Convention. My personal favorite scenario. Also note from the last post, that his poor showing on this list doesn't mean he'll show poorly overall. Definitely top 3.)

6) Bachmann: 0.5% (Needs to follow Santorum's path, but much less likely to do so.)

I'll be back on Wednesday to identify what each candidate must do moving forward. (Why they haven't hired me, I have no idea.)

3 comments:

Ryan Webb said...

No Sarah Palin side bar, or am I stuck in 2010? Looking forward to the election now...

Anonymous said...

Day after analysis?

IC said...

Ryan, it's good to hear from you. I've never ruled out a Draft Palin movement. Still, long odds.

Anon, I'm on it soon. Check back in a bit.

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