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Friday, May 23, 2008

The General Election Looms

Work is too busy and I have no time to write, but a cnn.com article today, written on a singular issue, exemplified how the entire general election will be framed. Who will you choose? Barack Obama vs. John McCain. John McCain vs. Barack Obama.

A) Will you choose the inexperienced first-term Senator with zero military experience, who has made his money from a fawning media and a passionate but youthfully naive, activist base and has drawn support from 90% of a racial demographic that makes 20% of the rest of the country nervous?

B) Or will you choose the aging, feeble Senator with no executive experience, who supports an unpopular war, and has steadily changed his economic policies to fall in line behind an unpopular and financially unsuccessful President?

Of course, you could also choose from either:

A) The fresh face on the political scene who inspires the future of America, who would make the world much more at ease when dealing with the United States, especially Europe and moderate-but-potentially-radical Muslims, and who could, along with an undoubtedly Democratic Congress, categorically reject, and often times reverse, the policies of the unpopular and unsuccessful President.

or

B) The military hero who has earned the right to talk about issues like veteran's benefits and foreign policy, who 35 years ago returned from an unpopular war and has since served his country in the House and Senate, knows how unpopular wars work, and can do what's best for the country regarding the unpopular war, even if it's unpopular.

It's completely up to you.

Enjoy the long weekend. I'll be taking a break next week as I try to manage my life. Send money, food, and extra red pens.

See you for Puerto Rico (June 1),

IC

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Oregon and Kentucky Key Numbers

Last night, as expected, Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky Primary and Barack Obama won the Oregon primary. Get ready, because you are about to get a lot of numbers thrown at you.
---------------
100
Percentage chance that Clinton won Kentucky convincingly.

60
Percentage of Kentucky exit pollers who said the (fill in your own adjective) Gas Tax Holiday was a "Good idea."

100
Percentage chance that Obama won Oregon convincingly.

26
Percentage of Oregon exit pollers who said the (fill in your own adjective) Gas Tax Holiday was a "Good idea."
---------------
85
Percentage of white voters in Oregon.

57
Percentage of white voters who voted for Obama.
---------------
58-45
The expected delegated split from last night, in favor of Clinton.

150
Approximate lead for Obama in pledged delegates in the Democratic Primary, when all estimations are averaged.

86
Number of pledged delegates remaining in the Democratic Primary.

-.08
Percentage change in Obama's pledged delegate lead after last night. (Note: That's not 8%... that's .08%.)
---------------
182
Overall delegate lead for Obama, according to Real Clear Politics.

297
Overall remaining delegates (86 pledged, 211 supers) in Democratic Primary.

80.8
Percentage of overall remaining delegates Hillary Clinton needs to tie Barack Obama in delegate race.

89.1
Percentage of 211 remaining superdelegates that Clinton would need to win, assuming she wins sixty percent of delegates in the final three primaries (Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota).

100
Percentage chance that, by the rules of the Democratic Party, the nominee is decided by the total delegate count.
---------------
440,000; 1.3
Official popular vote lead and percentage lead of Barack Obama in Democratic Primary. (Excludes Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington.)

146,000; .4
Numbers above if Florida is no longer excluded.

255,000; .7
Numbers above if all states are counted except Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot.

72,000; .2
Numbers above if Michigan is counted as well. (Note, now it is Clinton's lead.)
---------------
2.2
Average percentage national lead of Clinton over McCain, according to Real Clear Politics.

3.8
Average percentage national lead of Obama over McCain, according to Real Clear Politics.
---------------

Draw your own conclusions.


I'll be back on Friday.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Oregon and Kentucky Polls and Predictions

"This is nowhere near over." - Hillary Clinton.

Analysis to come. First, some Oregon and Kentucky polls. Thanks to Real Clear Politics for the numbers.

Oregon (52 electoral votes)
Suffolk 5/17 - 5/18
BO: 45
HC: 41
Obama +4

PPP (D) 5/17 - 5/18
BO: 56
HC: 38
Obama +18

SurveyUSA 5/16 - 5/18
BO: 55
HC: 42
Obama +13

American Res. Group 5/14 - 5/16
BO: 50
HC: 45
Obama +5

Portland Tribune 5/8 - 5/10
BO: 55
HC: 35
Obama +20

Oregon Average (5/18-5/18)
Barack Obama - 52
Hillary Clinton - 40
Difference: Obama +12
----------------------------------
Kentucky (51 electoral votes)
Suffolk 5/17 - 5/18
HC: 51
BO: 25
Clinton +26

American Res. Group 5/14 - 5/15
HC: 65
BO: 29
Clinton +36

SurveyUSA 5/9 - 5/11
HC: 62
BO: 30
Clinton +32

Research 2000 5/7 - 5/9
HC: 58
BO: 31
Clinton +27

Rasmussen 5/5 - 5/5
HC: 56
BO: 31
Clinton +25

Kentucky Average (5/5 - 5/18)
Hillary Clinton - 58
Barack Obama - 29
Difference: Clinton +29

PPFA Analysis: "This is nowhere near over." - Hillary Clinton.

Come on! Why drag this on? It was one thing to let the remaining states vote, but it's quite another to steal money from donors by convincing them this is still a contest with potentially damaging statements like, "Think of this as a hiring decision."

I don't get it anymore. Yes, it's her right to continue. Yes, she's still wildly more popular than Obama in West Virginia in Kentucky. But we've had the process. The Democrats have spoken. It was close, but Obama has won more delegates, he's won the popular vote, he long ago clinched states/contests won, and he's now winning superdelegates, who have appropriately followed the will of voting Democrats.

This is objective. He has won every category. They don't have an entire primary process across the country only to count the big states. The big states weigh more already. That's factored in! You don't arbitrarily make the decision to count those and not the smaller states or the caucus states, just to make the delegate math work for a particular candidate. That's called alienation. A process was in place. Obama won it. They're just playing out the string.

Tonight, he'll clinch the pledged delegate lead. He's up by 170, and after tonight, where Clinton isn't expected to trim more than 5-10 delegates, there will be only 111 pledged delegates left, while he's still leading by no fewer than 160. Therefore, there is no way that Clinton could come back in the pledged delegate category in the last three remaining primaries (Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota), nor will she even bring the deficit within 150.

The significance: Either two things happen.
A) 95% probability - She eventually concedes, after dragging out the Democratic Primary too long, hurting her party's chances in the fall.
B) The only way she wins the nomination is if the superdelegates go against their recent trend and overturn the decision made by the people. And if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people, the Democratic Party is toast in the November elections. Once again, the party's chances will be hurt in the fall. And they'll have Hillary Clinton to thank, because she stuck it out far too long. This is not resilience. It is stubbornness and it is selfishness.

Back tomorrow with results and anaylsis.
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