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Monday, June 02, 2008

Puerto Rico; Updated Primary Standings

Hillary Clinton's victory in Puerto Rico yesterday was convincing and it was expected.

But was it negligible?

One could make an argument both ways. On the one hand, you if you average the delegate count estimates of CNN, Goobergunch, FoxNews, ABCNews, Real Clear Politics, and Wikipedia, Barack Obama still has an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates and a clear lead in overall delegates.

Average pledged delegate spread:
1740-1625 (Obama +115)
Remaining pledged delegates: 31

Average overall delegate spread:
2070-1915 (Obama +155)
Remaining overall delegates: 234

Assuming no Obama superdelegates change their minds:
Total of 234 remaining overall delegates that Hillary Clinton must win to win by one delegate: 195
Percentage of remaining overall delegates Clinton needs to win by one delegate: 84.

Since, ultimately, the Democratic nominee will be determined by overall delegates, one can see how unlikely it is that Hillary Clinton can come back to win.

Yet Clinton has been hammering away at two arguments for months now, ever since the writing was on the wall after Pennsylvania. She claims that she is the better candidate to face McCain(subjective, debatable) and she claims that she is the true popular vote winner.

The popular vote argument is starting to hold water.

First, one should keep in mind that the remaining publicly undecided superdelegates that have yet to endorse Obama have probably been leaning towards Clinton. Why else would they reserve their vote?

Therefore, one can assume that the publicly undecided superdelegate has simply been waiting for a legitimate reason to support her, one that is not grounded in an argument both sides can easily make (eg. the better general election candidate).

Furthermore, remember that a potentially huge outcry that would come from a superdelegate veto and overturn of pledged delegates would stem from the will of the people being ignored. But if the unannounced Clintonian superdelegates can make the case that, if Clinton wins the popular vote, they actually are following the will of the people, than the outcry would be at least partially deflected.

So where does that popular vote stand? Well, it depends on who you ask. I will take a close look at those numbers later in the week, after Tuesday's Montana and South Dakota primaries finish off the voting process.

I'll be back tomorrow with Montana and South Dakota polls (if they even exist out there) and predictions. See you then.

1 comment:

Geoff said...

If she wins the popular vote, does she take it to the convention?

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