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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Montana and South Dakota Polls

Although there are signs that Hillary Clinton might be suspending her campaign any day now, why not take a look at polling data for the last two primaries, just for old time's sake? The polling data, like the respective state populations, are sparse.

South Dakota (15 pledged delegates)
American Research Group (5/31-6/1)
Clinton: 60
Obama: 34
Difference: Obama +26

Dakota Wesleyan University (4/3)
Obama: 46
Clinton: 34
Difference: Obama +12

Montana (16 pledged delegates)American Research Group (5/31-6/1)
Obama: 48
Clinton: 44
Difference: Obama +4

Mason-Dixon (5/19-5/21)
Obama: 52
Clinton: 35
Difference: Obama +17

PPFA Analysis: Obama, who is 45 delegates short of the 2,118 majority, is on the doorstep of the nomination. As evidenced by the polls, Obama is expected to win both states today. Assuming a modest 17-14 split in his favor, that leaves Obama 28 short of the majority. When the seventeen remaining undecided superdelegates in the United States Senate, and now the Democratic House whip, declare their support for him, that will leave him only 10 short. It's almost over. With still undecided superdelegates expected to make a decision after these final two primaries, Obama could be pushed over the top by the beginning of next week, if not the end of this one.

This inevitability explains why there are stories floating around that we could be days or hours away from a Hillary Clinton concession. Stay tuned.


I'll be back by tomorrow morning, concession or not.

5 comments:

Gary said...

IC, you're back with daily posts and three yesterday?? I don't know how you do it.

I look forward to seeing if you can make a general election interesting for five months.

Jonathan said...

I don't think she drops out. I think she makes a big announcement that she's pressing forward. Typical Hillary.

Coley said...

I think this arguement is flawed. The new polling data shows Hillary winning South Dakota by a "wide" margin. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillary win both states, and weaken Obama's western strategy arguement.

William said...

Coley, I don't see that polling anywhere. Besides, today's news about a Clinton concession coming can't help her numbers out there.

Anonymous said...

Waiting on you, IC!!

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