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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Oregon and Kentucky Polls and Predictions

"This is nowhere near over." - Hillary Clinton.

Analysis to come. First, some Oregon and Kentucky polls. Thanks to Real Clear Politics for the numbers.

Oregon (52 electoral votes)
Suffolk 5/17 - 5/18
BO: 45
HC: 41
Obama +4

PPP (D) 5/17 - 5/18
BO: 56
HC: 38
Obama +18

SurveyUSA 5/16 - 5/18
BO: 55
HC: 42
Obama +13

American Res. Group 5/14 - 5/16
BO: 50
HC: 45
Obama +5

Portland Tribune 5/8 - 5/10
BO: 55
HC: 35
Obama +20

Oregon Average (5/18-5/18)
Barack Obama - 52
Hillary Clinton - 40
Difference: Obama +12
Kentucky (51 electoral votes)
Suffolk 5/17 - 5/18
HC: 51
BO: 25
Clinton +26

American Res. Group 5/14 - 5/15
HC: 65
BO: 29
Clinton +36

SurveyUSA 5/9 - 5/11
HC: 62
BO: 30
Clinton +32

Research 2000 5/7 - 5/9
HC: 58
BO: 31
Clinton +27

Rasmussen 5/5 - 5/5
HC: 56
BO: 31
Clinton +25

Kentucky Average (5/5 - 5/18)
Hillary Clinton - 58
Barack Obama - 29
Difference: Clinton +29

PPFA Analysis: "This is nowhere near over." - Hillary Clinton.

Come on! Why drag this on? It was one thing to let the remaining states vote, but it's quite another to steal money from donors by convincing them this is still a contest with potentially damaging statements like, "Think of this as a hiring decision."

I don't get it anymore. Yes, it's her right to continue. Yes, she's still wildly more popular than Obama in West Virginia in Kentucky. But we've had the process. The Democrats have spoken. It was close, but Obama has won more delegates, he's won the popular vote, he long ago clinched states/contests won, and he's now winning superdelegates, who have appropriately followed the will of voting Democrats.

This is objective. He has won every category. They don't have an entire primary process across the country only to count the big states. The big states weigh more already. That's factored in! You don't arbitrarily make the decision to count those and not the smaller states or the caucus states, just to make the delegate math work for a particular candidate. That's called alienation. A process was in place. Obama won it. They're just playing out the string.

Tonight, he'll clinch the pledged delegate lead. He's up by 170, and after tonight, where Clinton isn't expected to trim more than 5-10 delegates, there will be only 111 pledged delegates left, while he's still leading by no fewer than 160. Therefore, there is no way that Clinton could come back in the pledged delegate category in the last three remaining primaries (Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota), nor will she even bring the deficit within 150.

The significance: Either two things happen.
A) 95% probability - She eventually concedes, after dragging out the Democratic Primary too long, hurting her party's chances in the fall.
B) The only way she wins the nomination is if the superdelegates go against their recent trend and overturn the decision made by the people. And if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people, the Democratic Party is toast in the November elections. Once again, the party's chances will be hurt in the fall. And they'll have Hillary Clinton to thank, because she stuck it out far too long. This is not resilience. It is stubbornness and it is selfishness.

Back tomorrow with results and anaylsis.

1 comment:

Kinggame said...

I don't want the guy for president, but I have to hand it to him. Hillary had every advantage coming into this, and he took it straight to her. She had the money, the infrastructure, the connections, you name, she had it. And he beat her in delegates, states, and the popular vote. Hat's off to Mr. Obama.

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