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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Oregon and Kentucky Key Numbers

Last night, as expected, Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky Primary and Barack Obama won the Oregon primary. Get ready, because you are about to get a lot of numbers thrown at you.
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100
Percentage chance that Clinton won Kentucky convincingly.

60
Percentage of Kentucky exit pollers who said the (fill in your own adjective) Gas Tax Holiday was a "Good idea."

100
Percentage chance that Obama won Oregon convincingly.

26
Percentage of Oregon exit pollers who said the (fill in your own adjective) Gas Tax Holiday was a "Good idea."
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85
Percentage of white voters in Oregon.

57
Percentage of white voters who voted for Obama.
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58-45
The expected delegated split from last night, in favor of Clinton.

150
Approximate lead for Obama in pledged delegates in the Democratic Primary, when all estimations are averaged.

86
Number of pledged delegates remaining in the Democratic Primary.

-.08
Percentage change in Obama's pledged delegate lead after last night. (Note: That's not 8%... that's .08%.)
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182
Overall delegate lead for Obama, according to Real Clear Politics.

297
Overall remaining delegates (86 pledged, 211 supers) in Democratic Primary.

80.8
Percentage of overall remaining delegates Hillary Clinton needs to tie Barack Obama in delegate race.

89.1
Percentage of 211 remaining superdelegates that Clinton would need to win, assuming she wins sixty percent of delegates in the final three primaries (Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota).

100
Percentage chance that, by the rules of the Democratic Party, the nominee is decided by the total delegate count.
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440,000; 1.3
Official popular vote lead and percentage lead of Barack Obama in Democratic Primary. (Excludes Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington.)

146,000; .4
Numbers above if Florida is no longer excluded.

255,000; .7
Numbers above if all states are counted except Michigan, where Obama was not on the ballot.

72,000; .2
Numbers above if Michigan is counted as well. (Note, now it is Clinton's lead.)
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2.2
Average percentage national lead of Clinton over McCain, according to Real Clear Politics.

3.8
Average percentage national lead of Obama over McCain, according to Real Clear Politics.
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Draw your own conclusions.


I'll be back on Friday.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bravo.

Anonymous said...

Hey, I want to see your nominee for Barry's VP. Whens that gonna happen. Curious on the Hill.

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