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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

North Carolina and Indiana Polls and Predictions

Yesterday, I wrote about the potential scenarios following today's two big primaries. It was ultimately concluded that while the winner for each primary is already determined, it's the margins of victories that are difficult to project and extremely significant.

So let's take a look at some recent polls. Most polls are found with the help of Real Clear Politics.

North Carolina:
SurveyUSA 5/2 - 5/4
Barack Obama: 50
Hillary Clinton: 45
Obama +5

Insider Advantage 5/4 - 5/4
BO: 48
HC: 45
Obama +3

Zogby Tracking 5/3 - 5/4
BO: 48
HC: 40
Obama +8

PPP (D) 5/3 - 5/4
BO: 53
HC: 43
Obama +1o

Rasmussen 5/1 - 5/1
BO: 49
HC: 40
Obama +9

Research 2000 4/29 - 4/3
BO: 51
HC: 44
Obama +7

Mason-Dixon 4/28 - 4/29
BO: 49
HC: 42
Obama +7

North Carolina Average 4/28-5/4
BO: 50
HC: 43
Obama +7
----------------------------------------
Indiana:
InsiderAdvantage 5/4 - 5/4
HC: 48
BO: 44
Clinton +4

SurveyUSA 5/2 - 5/4
HC: 54
BO: 42
Clinton +12

Suffolk 5/3 - 5/4
HC: 49
BO: 43
Clinton +6

PPP (D) 5/3 - 5/4
HC: 51
BO: 46
Clinton +5

Zogby Tracking 5/3 - 5/4
BO: 44
HC: 42
Obama +2.0

Indiana Average 5/3-5/4
HC: 49
BO: 44
Clinton +5

PPFA Analysis: Despite the Clinton campaign making inroads in North Carolina, the polls say that we're heading towards a 7-10 point victory for Obama there and a 3-6 point victory for Clinton in Indiana. If this is what happens, it's probably all she wrote for Hillary Clinton. As explained yesterday, North Carolina has more pledged delegates than Indiana. If he wins the state with more pledged delegates (North Carolina) by more than Clinton wins the state with less pledged delegates (Indiana), he could come away with nearly as many delegates as he lost in the Pennsylvania Primary (12). Such a result would nearly negate her victory there after six weeks of heavy campaigning.

Ultimately, after eight weeks of campaigning and three big primaries which had 345 pledged delegates, Clinton will cut her deficit of 150-160 by about six. What's worse is that without a very strong showing tomorrow, it will be very difficult to make a case to superdelegates that she has all the momentum.

Now, if we're not headed towards where the polls indicate, it means we have a surprise in store for us tonight. If Obama takes both primaries, expect a Clinton suspension or concession by the end of the week. If Clinton takes both primaries, I'd consider her the favorite for the nomination, as superdelegates will stampede towards her and she'll sweep the rest of the primaries.

Stay tuned.

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