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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Analyzing Indiana and North Carolina Effects

A great night for Barack Obama and a disappointing night for Hillary Clinton, to say the least. Beyond delegate math, what are the consequences?

Moving forward, there is an enormous risk for Hillary Clinton. There is no longer a realistic avenue towards victory lane, a conclusion that will be addressed shortly. Therefore, as it seems she is staying in the race despite a nearly disastrous Tuesday night, she runs a major risk of ruining her legacy. It boils down to this:

If Hillary Clinton is against the steepest of odds, with no realistic path to victory, then does her decision to push forward and extend the Democratic Primary mean she's in it just to hurt Barack Obama?

Whether she is or isn't, one cannot deny that many people will think that she is, and even worse, succeeding. Moreover, if her and her husband continue to go hard after Obama on issues like experience and elitism, she could destroy not only the party's chances in the general election, but destroy nearly her entire legacy and some of President Clinton's legacy as well, which to this point has been wildly popular in Democratic circles.

Does this not seem like too high of a cost, when any potential gains are incredibly unrealistic? As explained by PPFA beginning two weeks ago, a big North Carolina win for Obama would eliminate Clinton's Pennsylvania triumph in one fell swoop, especially if Obama kept Indiana close. That's exactly what happened. Despite all the momentum and general election polls, Clinton is in the same spot she was in on March 5th, the only tangible difference being that there are a lot less delegates left to win. The math is nearly impossible for her to come back and her argument of leading the popular vote if one counts Michigan and Florida took a major hit last night. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone that gives her better than a 1 in 10 shot to win the nomination. If you do find that person, have them try to explain how she does it. It will be good for a laugh. They're like Ron Paul supporters. They live in another reality.

Yet she pushes forward, from West Virginia to Kentucky to Oregon, seemingly oblivious as to the collateral damage on the party or her reputation. It's like she's riding a team of oxen on the Oregon Trail and forces them to forge a five-foot river. Except with this, she'll lose a lot more than a frying pan, some shot, and forty pounds of bacon. She could cost her party the White House, and she could lose the opportunity to ever run for President again.

Onward, ho!

6 comments:

Karen said...

How do you see her doing in the rest of the states? If she wins all of them, what are her chances then?

gwudzie16 said...

Ron Paul in '09! Now it's time to get back to my supergalactic trasnporter...

ben said...

I haven't had this thought until reading this post (and it surprises me) but here it is:

Is there not a similarity between Hillary's stubborn insistance on her imminent victory in the primaries and George's on his victory in Iraq (and against world evils in general)?

Anonymous said...

I don't think you can really blame her until Obama has 2,025. It's just like Huckabee.

Tyson said...

props for oregon trail reference. all i ever bought was shot and bacon, come to think of it.

The Dude said...

This is not "Huckabee the sequel". We have delt with 8 years of neo- conservative control. It is time Senator Clinton put her massive ego aside and contribute to reinventing the Democratic party into a winner. Obama has the votes. It is time to get the General Election rolling...

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