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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Democratic Primary Standings / Delegate Math

Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates was cut from 161 to somewhere between 145 and 151. That's what Hillary Clinton's 9-point victory in the highly anticipated Pennsylvania Primary got her. Ten to sixteen delegates out of 160. She shaved, at best, 10% off of Obama's lead, in a state that was tailor made for her (second oldest state, loads of rural areas, 59% women, closed primary). Now, with only 408 pledged delegates remaining, she must win, at least, 277 (68%) of the remaining pledged delegates to win the pledged delegate count by one.

This, of course, is never going to happen, especially when one considers that her Pennsylvania win will be negated by Obama's North Carolina win on May 6. Even if, on that date, Clinton wins the smaller Indiana, Obama will undoubtedly extend his lead with the inevitable triumph in African-American and youth dominated North Carolina, to say nothing of the fact that Independents can vote in both those primaries, a boon to Obama. Thus, on the morning of May 7th, with 217 delegates remaining, Hillary Clinton will be right back where she was on April 21. She'll have a deficit of about 155, except this time, she will need to win 85% of the remaining delegates, the most improbable of possible situations.

And yet, Clinton continues. I'll address motivations and ramifications on Friday. See you then.

1 comment:

Action Alz said...

Will the candidates address the issues during the NC primary?

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Senators Clinton, McCain, and Obama must address this medical and fiscal epidemic. It’s up to us to ask them how, and ask them now.

www.alz.org/election08

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