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Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Mississippi Polls and Predictions

As predicted, Wyoming was enough to get Barack Obama back on track. All it took was the least populous state in the union and Hillary Clinton has once again lost momentum. This turnaround is evidenced by two Mississippi polls, taken over the last four days, each by Insider Advantage.

Thursday, March 6th
Obama - 46
Clinton - 40
Obama +6.0

Sunday, March 9th
Obama - 54
Clinton - 37
Obama +17.0

The parameters of the two polls were nearly identical. Both took place over the course of only one day. Both only questioned "likely voters." Only two days after Clinton's March 4th triumph, she had closed a double-digit gap in most Mississippi polls to single digits, as shown with the Insider Advantage poll from March 6th. However, after Obama's Wyoming victory on Saturday, Insider Advantage's Sunday poll had Obama's lead grow 11 points to 17. With the media once again covering Obama as a winner, no matter how insignificant a narrow 7-to-5 delegate win seemed to be, the momentum shifted back to Obama and the people fell for it. It was horserace coverage as its finest.

Insider Advantage is not the only poll that has Obama slated to win big tonight. Here are two more:

American Research Group 3/5 - 3/6
Obama - 58
Clinton - 34
Obama +24.0
Rasmussen 3/5
Obama - 53
Clinton - 39
Obama +14.0

Both of these polls have Obama up by double-digits, and both were completed after Clinton's March 4th victories. The average of the two has Obama with a 19 point advantage.

Finally here are the averages of all four major polls:

Average of the four polls:
Obama - 53
Clinton - 38
Difference - Obama +15

Mississippi is his. Now, let's be careful about Obama's Mississippi dominance projecting delegates down the road. It does not necessarily translate to the subsequent eight states and two territories remaining in the Democratic Primary. Where Mississippi goes, the country does not, which is probably something that people on the west coast and northeast are thankful for. Just as there are reasons why Obama wins caucuses, let us not forget his dominance in states with a strong African-American turnout. Call it the South Carolina effect. In those Mississippi polls, the American Research Group poll found that he had 87% of the African-American vote. In the Rasmussen poll, he had 80%.

Regardless of the reason for Barack Obama's victory in the state, Mississippi will serve its purpose for the Obama campaign. It will be yet another state in the win column for Obama, something he will continue to use in his stump speeches. He will pad his lead by winning 18-20 of the state's 33 delegates. It will bring him a little closer to Clinton in Pennsylvania polls, though, like Ohio, she will probably hold onto her lead there. However, if through winning Wyoming and Mississippi he keeps it close in Penn, all Clinton can realistically pull off on April 22nd is to win back the delegates she lost in Wyoming and Mississippi.

And then we wait until May, though the writing will be on the wall for Camp Clinton. Frankly, it already is.

Back tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

Succinct and informative as always. Yesterday had a few good jokes but it's nice to have the substance back.

Phil said...

I agree with the last post. The change of pace was fun, but this is practically my morning coffee.

DJ said...

I thought that if she won Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, she was going to win the nomination. You're saying no?

Jonathan said...

If Obama clears 60%, I think it'll be a huge story. A 20 point win at this point in the campaign in any race is telling.

Jackie said...

Is there a reason why you still have Gore listed at 100:1 on your Odds thingy?

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