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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Latest Texas and Ohio Polls and Analyses

Where are the polls breaking and who has the momentum for today's enormously important primaries? Let's get right to the latest numbers. Nearly all polls are found with the help of the Real Clear Politics website.

Texas Polls (228 delegates)

Reuters/CSpan/Houston Chronicle (3/1-3/3)
Obama - 47
Clinton - 44
Obama +3

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby (3/1 - 3/3)
Clinton - 47
Obama - 44
Clinton +3.0

Rasmussen (3/2 - 3/2)
Obama - 48
Clinton - 47
Obama +1.0

InsiderAdvantage (3/2 - 3/2)
Clinton - 49
Obama - 44
Clinton +5.0

PPP (D) (3/1 - 3/2)
Clinton - 50
Obama - 44
Clinton +6.0

SurveyUSA (3/1 - 3/2)
Obama - 49
Clinton - 48
Obama +1.0

WFAA/Belo Tracking (2/29 - 3/2)
Clinton - 46
Obama - 45
Clinton +1.0

M-D/Star-Telegram (2/27 - 2/29)
Obama - 46
Clinton - 45
Obama +1.0

Average of 8 polls (Each takes 4)
Clinton - 47
Obama - 46
Clinton +1

Presidential Politics for America analysis: Texas has now twice seen swings of momentum. For about two years, Hillary Clinton led in polls for the Democratic Primary in Texas. In 2007, she saw double-digit leads in every Texas poll taken, running comfortably ahead of Barack Obama and John Edwards. In early 2008, her lead began to slim. On or around February 20th - two weeks ago - Obama started winning some polls in the Lone Star State. By the last few days of February, he was leading most Texas polls, and suddenly seemed the favorite to win it.

However, as February turned to March, Hillary Clinton began to reclaim momentum just in time for QuasiSuperTuesday. If momentum holds through 8:00 pm CST, she should win Texas by a couple points.


Ohio Polls (161 delegates)

Zogby International (3/1-303)
Obama - 47
Clinton - 45
Obama +2

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby (3/1 - 3/3)
Clinton - 44
Obama - 44
Tie

Rasmussen (3/2 - 3/2)
Clinton - 50
Obama - 44
Clinton +6.0

Suffolk (3/1 - 3/2)
Clinton - 52
Obama - 40
Clinton +12.0

PPP (D) (3/1 - 3/2)
Clinton - 51
Obama - 42
Clinton +9.0

SurveyUSA (3/1 - 3/2)
Clinton - 54
Obama - 44
Clinton +10.0

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. (2/28 - 3/2)
Clinton - 51
Obama - 42
Clinton +9.0

Quinnipiac (2/27 - 03/2)
Clinton - 49
Obama - 45
Clinton +4.0

Average of 8 (Clinton takes six, Obama one, tie in one)
Clinton - 49
Obama - 44
Clinton +5

PPFA analysis: A victory is expected for Clinton in Ohio, but the question is by how much. She can spin two narrow victories in Texas and Ohio as a tangible sign of the momentum shift, but in delegate math, two 5-point victories in Texas and Ohio closes the gap maybe 20 delegates, when she currently has a deficit of well over 100. Therefore, while she would take two small wins right now if offered to her, she would love to see a 57-42 win in Ohio to really make a statement.


Rhode Island (32 delegates)

Three major Rhode Island polls have been taken in the last ten days.
On February 23rd, Rasmussen had Clinton up 16.
On February 27th, Fleming had Clinton up 9.
On March 2nd, Brown University had Clinton up 5.

PPFA Analysis: That's a trend. Look for an even split of the delegates.


Vermont (15)

PPFA Analysis: Obama is up by double-digits in every Vermont poll, some (Rasmussen) by as much as 24. Look for an Obama romp that could potentially negate a tight Clinton victory in the Texas behemoth.

PPFA Overall Analysis and Predictions: Coming this afternoon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Too... many... numbers...

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