Add to Technorati Favorites Presidential Politics for America: The Impending Demise of the Democrats

Thursday, March 06, 2008

The Impending Demise of the Democrats

Only the Democrats.

The three biggest swing states in the November election will be Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The Democrats have alienated Florida voters by stripping their delegates. The Democrats have shown the worst sides of themselves during their national security civil war in Ohio. And the Democrats' two remaining contenders are about to empty their war chests attacking each other for the next seven weeks in Pennsylvania.

In a general election where the majority of the country is upset with the incumbent Republican Party on the election's two biggest issues (Iraq and economy), to say nothing of the majority of the country thinking the country has gone in the wrong direction under a Republican president, only the Democrats would find a way to lose what should have been the biggest electoral lock since 1996.

Here are the Democratic difficulties, outlined in the form of bullets, which you can metaphorically find in one of the feet of the Democratic Party, compliments of themselves.

--The Florida situation is only the fault of the Florida Democratic Committee, yet it is the national committee that has been wounded. When Florida's state Democrats openly discussed pushing up their primary in front of February 5, the Democratic National Committee instructed them to stay where they were, in an effort to keep order in the primary season. Florida was warned that such a move would result in their loss of delegates at the convention. Florida proceeded. Florida lost their delegates. It was supposed to be the end of it.

Now, however, with neither candidate approaching the 2,025 necessary for the majority, Florida, and of course, Michigan, are receiving more attention than intended. Floridians are continually reminded that the Democrats stripped them of their influence and their delegates, while the merciful Republicans only penalized them half. When it comes time to pit the two parties against each other, Florida will have their popular Republican Governor Charlie Crist going from Miami to the panhandle, reminding them of the disenfranchising Democratic Party. A late attempt by Crist and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm to re-seat their delegates is underway, but that by no means will rectify the ramifications on the general election.

--In Ohio, Hillary Clinton is recklessly swinging her arms at her opponent (though this by no means is an implication that Obama has contrarily run an immaculate campaign of late). This pugilistic approach has rejuvenated her campaign, but horrendously tarnished the Democratic Primary to the point where the party's chances in the general election have taken a direct hit from one of her attacks.

Her ongoing tactic of reducing Obama to an inexperienced schoolboy reached new depths in the days leading up to Ohio. The now infamous "3 AM ad" implied that Clinton would be ready to answer an important national security phone call while Obama might hide under his bed sheets. This seemed to slow Obama's momentum across the country, as he stopped cutting into Clinton's Ohio lead, his temporary Texas lead was lost, and his average national lead in polls slipped from 5 to 1.

If one were to examine the November implications, the Democrats will be severely hurt by these attacks, regardless of who garners the nomination. If Obama holds onto his lead and is the Democratic nominee, attacks from John McCain and the GOP will carry a lot more weight with Clinton's words behind them. While there is no doubt that McCain would continually bring up the difference in their experience regardless of Clinton's strategy, there is something a little more legitimate about such attacks when a member of Obama's party was saying the same thing seven months earlier. Therefore, Ohio, a swing state, was continually hearing this message from a Democrat and then a Republican. Obama's general election chances take a hit.

Now, however, suppose Clinton's tactic eventually gives her the nomination. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, and it becomes a campaign about the 3 am phone call and who is more prepared to lead on Day One, then how can she possibly expect to beat John McCain, a veteran in the military, a foreign policy expert, and someone who is in his fourth term with the United States Senate? Once again, the GOP can go back to the Democratic Party and use the Clinton campaign's message to sink the nominee. If this is a national security election or an experience election, the Republicans will win. She is making it one.

--Finally, in Pennsylvania, we will see Clinton's Ohio tactics but for a longer stretch. The Democratic contest will be focused on Pennsylvania and its April 22nd primary for nearly seven weeks. The exact message Clinton used to defeat Obama in Ohio will be used in Pennsylvania. The same implications exist. With every attack ad these two candidates create, they are hurting themselves in a crucial swing state.

For fairness' sake, this diatribe against Clinton will tomorrow be matched by a diatribe against Obama. By no means has he run the perfect campaign of late. For specifics, check back tomorrow.


Jay G said...

So what about Clinton saying she won Ohio and Democrats need Ohio in November? Is she right?

Anonymous said...

Hillary doesn't care about the party. Just herself.

Jonathan said...

I'm interested in seeing what you have against Obama. Are you a Republican?

Anonymous said...

I'm interested in seeing what you have against Obama. Are you a Republican?.

I'd say s/he's doing a great job of maintaining balance in their posts - kind of refreshing for a change.

Tyson said...

I really think the focus here is disinterested analysis -- which is what makes it so great to read.

IC said...

JG - Clinton is right about needing Ohio, but not necessarily right to assume that her beating Obama means she's more likely to carry it.

Anon#1 - We must leave open the possibility that she truly thinks she's the better candidate to beat McCain.

Jonathan - It looks like the Obama post will wait until Monday. Tomorrow I gotta talk about Florida and Michigan. Anyway, I hope to see you then. I'll let you guess my party in the next seven months.

Anon#2 - Thanks for noticing.

Tyson - You've said some kind things in a couple posts and consider this my thanks.

The Dude said...

It was natural that the pendulum would swing back to Clinton. She gets to play the tired/old
"comeback kid" rhetoric that the American people love. The Superdelegates will supress the voice of the people anyways.
We might as well have the illusion of a legitmate victory.

Also, why did they pick 3 am? Why not 4? or 3:30?

IC is cearly a women...the vocabulary used in this blog is

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