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Friday, March 21, 2008

A Good Friday for Clinton, Obama, and McCain

(Editor's note: This long weekend, I'll recap the week that was in presidential politics, showing why all three contenders have a reason to smile and call today a Good Friday. Today is Barack Obama, tomorrow will be Hillary Clinton, and Sunday will be John McCain. Happy Easter.)

Barack Obama is sitting pretty.

He is leading in pledged delegates. The PPFA Average has him up by 161 with 566 left. This mpeans that for Hillary Clinton to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead, she will need to win 364, or 64%, of the remaining pledged delegates. Considering only once this primary season has she won a state by more than 58% of the vote (Rhode Island was 58, Arkansas was 70), while Obama has done it 15 times (mostly caucuses), it is extremely unlikely that she can come back in this category.

He is leading in the state count. In fact, he clinched it with Mississippi. He has now won 26 states, and the number grows to 30 if you include Texas (he split it with Clinton but Obama won more delegates from the state), Washington DC, the Democrats Abroad, and the Virgin Islands. Clinton, meanwhile, has won 13 states, with Texas and the American Samoa possibly bringing the number to 15, and the appropriately excluded Florida and Michigan not bringing it to 17.

Finally, he is leading the popular vote. There have been about 27.3 million votes cast in the Democratic Primary. Barack Obama has won 13.6 million of them, or 49.6%. Hillary Clinton has won 12.8 million of them, or 46.6%. The difference is 800,000 votes in favor of Obama (note, this does not include Florida and Michigan, for obvious reasons).

With recent stories that Florida and Michigan will not revote, that makes Clinton comebacks in any of those three categories all the more unlikely.

Know this: If Barack Obama holds onto leads in each of these three categories, there is no chance that the superdelegates will overturn the decision. He could be winning by 25 pledged delegates, 4 states, and 100,000 votes... and the superdelegates will not overturn the decision. It would be an incredibly undemocratic decision by the Democratic Primary.

I'm back tomorrow for why everything written above does not necessarily translate to a Barack Obama nomination. See you then.

Addendum: For my thoughts on Obama's speech this week, read my preview and recap. In one sentence: The content of the speech did not help or hurt him, but the quality and delivery should be of help as he reminds the American people of his potential talents as a president.

Addendum #2: Obama is also about to receive Bill Richardson's endorsement. Richardson was thought of as the #4 candidate in the race after Clinton, Obama, and John Edwards. (Edwards has yet to endorse.) Richardson's strength is seen in the Southwest, but there are no more southwest primaries. Still, another big name and superdelegate on Obama's side can never hurt.

1 comment:

William said...

Bill Richardson for VP?

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