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Friday, February 15, 2008

Wisconsin and Ohio Polls Update

Hillary Clinton's March 4th firewall is the only thing standing in the way of a Barack Obama nomination. If she wins both Texas and Ohio by large margins, she bides her time until she wins Pennsylvania in April. With a close overall pledged delegate count as the primaries wind down in May, her superdelegates will be able to hand her the nomination. While Barack Obama's supporters seem to acknowledge that Texas will definitely go to Clinton (Latinos and the "Big State" pattern), they seem to keep their hopes up for Ohio.

The Ohio polls do not back up these ambitions.

In the past five days, three major Ohio polls have come out. Here is a quick look at the numbers for the Democratic Primary:
Rasmussen (2/13 poll)
Clinton - 51
Obama - 37
Spread - Clinton +14

Quinnipiac (2/06-2/12)
Clinton - 55
Obama - 34
Spread - Clinton + 21

Survey USA (2/10-2/11)
Clinton - 56
Obama - 39
Spread - Clinton +17

Average
Clinton - 54
Obama - 37
Spread - Clinton +17

First look analysis: Despite this brilliant run by Barack Obama, Clinton maintains a healthy lead in Ohio. With no conclusive or complete Texas polling data available yet, one has to assume she is doing just as well if not better down in the Lone Star State. Her plan of losing several small states in exchange for winning big ones might not be a Giuliani-like disaster after all.

Second look analysis: Then again, the Democrats have two primaries on Tuesday. The Hawaii Caucus will surely follow the other caucuses in their adoration for Obama. The Wisconsin Primary, with a sizeable 92 delegates, will be a huge factor in determining how close Obama can stay to Clinton on March 4th. If Obama wins Wisconsin, that will be ten straight contests in which he beats Clinton. Run some Ohio polls after that and see what happens.

However, if Clinton were to win Wisconsin, this reaffirms many Clinton supporters from the March 4th states, and she could win by even a larger margin than currently projected.

The two major Wisconsin polls taken in the last week, from Rasmussen and Strategic Vision, each have Obama up by four points. Clearly, the state can go in either direction.

And so can this primary.

4 comments:

Jonathan said...

IC, I have admired your analysis for months, but every time I think you're with Obama, you seem to keep Clinton alive. I'm starting to think you're either a Republican or a Clinton supporter, not that there's much difference.

Jordan said...

If Obama wins both, he'll win Ohio. That's too much momentum.

Jordan said...

I meant both Hawaii and Wisconsin...

Anonymous said...

I think that if Obama wins big in Hawaii (likely) and simply wins in Wisconsin, he may very well end up even with Hillary in Texas and not too far behind in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

After Ohio and Texas, he could still be holding a delegate lead (due to proportional awarding of delegates) and have favorable states ahead of him again. If he even maintains a small lead until the convention, I think the superdelegates will be looking for the person that has the best chance at winning the White House.

I think Obama is that person at this point, based on current polls as well as Hillary just having too many people strongly against her. Obama would likely win the states Hillary has taken in the primaries, and he could win southern states too (a recent democratic weakness).

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