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Friday, February 01, 2008

Super Tuesday Odds: State-by-State

To do any sort of predicting for Tuesday's 22-state bonanza, it is necessary to look at the polls in the states that will vote that day. Ultimately, a rough estimate of the delegate spread can be postulated, although one should be fully be aware that strange things can happen on voting day. Indeed, much can happen between now and voting day, which is why I'll repeat the process for Monday. More on that in a bit.

So here is some information for the 22 states (and 2 other delegations) voting on Super Tuesday. A few bits of the information I sought were:

-Number of Pledged Delegates. Those do not count superdelegates from each state, who are at their leisure to choose either candidate. Pledged (3,253) + super (796) = total (4,049).
-Number of polls done recently in each state.
-Average of recent polls in each state.
-Projected split of delegates in the state, if polls hold.

What will be interesting is that I will repeat this process on Monday, to see how the John Edwards drop out and last night's cordial debate affect these numbers. That way, we'll see if any candidate has momentum going into Super Tuesday. So be very sure to check back in on Monday.

On with the show... (Most statistics found from Real Clear Politics. Special thanks to friend and fellow blogger Lando for helping me out with some research.)

Alab.- 52 Pledged Del; 3 polls since 1/15/08; HC36%-BO32% ; HC28-BO24
Alaska - 13 Delegates; no major polls
American Samoa - 3 Delegates; no major polls
Arizona - 56 Delegates; 2 polls since 1/20; HC41%-BO26%; HC34-BO22
Arkansas - 35 Delegates; no recent polls
California - 370 Del; 6 polls since 1/20; HC45%-BO33%; HC213-BO157
Colorado - 55 Delegates;
1 recent poll 1/23; BO34%-HC32%; BO28-HC27
Connecticut - 48 Delegates; 2 polls since 1/17; HC41%-BO34%; HC26-BO22
Delaware - 15 Delegates; no recent polls
Democrats Abroad - 7 Delegates; no major polls
Georgia - 87 Delegates; 3 polls since 1/10; BO43%-HC35%; BO48-HC39
Idaho - 18 Delegates; no major polls
Illinois - 153 Delegates; 2 polls since 12/13; BO51%-HC24%; BO106-HC47
Kansas - 32 Delegates; no recent polls
Mass. - 93 Del; 2 major polls since 1/28; HC50%-BO35%; HC55-BO38
Minnesota - 72 Delegates;
1 recent poll 1/27; HC40%-BO33%; HC 39-BO33
Missouri - 72 Delegates; 2 polls since 01/24; HC44%-BO28%; HC 44-BO28
New Jersey - 107 Del; 2 polls since 01/15; HC47%-BO 30%; HC66-BO41
New Mexico - 26 Delegates; no major polls
New York - 232 Del; 6 polls since 01/14; HC 50%-BO 27%; HC150-BO82
North Dakota - 13 Delegates; no major polls
Oklahoma - 38 Delegates; 2 polls since 1/13; HC45%-BO19%; HC27-BO11
Tennessee - 68 Delegates; 2 polls since 1/21; HC47%-BO23%; HC45-BO23
Utah - 23 Delegates; no major polls

This is a total of 1,688 pledged delegates (with 400 superdelegates still to pledge down the road, but those have nothing to do with whom the voters choose). If we do not include the 185 delegates from the small delegations with no reliable polling (Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, American Samoa, and the Democrats Abroad), that leaves 1,503 delegates.

The projected split for that 1,503, among current polling from above, is:
Clinton - 840
Obama - 663
(Spread - Clinton up 173)

Add in the pledged delegates earned thus far (2,025 needed for nomination), and it's:
Clinton - 888
Obama - 726
(Spread - Clinton up 162)
Unprojected - 185
Edwards - 26
Remaining - 1,428 Pledged Delegates, 796 Superdelegates

If you're an Obama supporter, these are sobering numbers. He loses 8 of the 11 states projected and pushes a ninth. Despite Obama's strides, he will still be trailing after Super Tuesday, which will push more voters to Clinton. What's more is that Clinton is expected to win most of the 796 superdelegates will be casting their vote down the stretch. In the race to 2,025 total delegates, Obama looks to be in a hole on February 6th, and he probably will not be able to climb out.

Of course, none of this is chiseled in stone. I plan to utilize the polling numbers from this weekend to re-do this chart on Monday, so check back in then.

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