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Monday, February 04, 2008

Super Tuesday Odds: State-By-State (Redux)

Barack Obama has caught Hillary Clinton in California and maybe the rest of the country. In California, Suffolk, Rasmussen, and Zogby all have Obama on top. CNN and Cook Political Report each put a poll out today with Obama up nationally.

Obama's momentum in the month of January kept him in the race. His momentum in February could win it. Keeping this in mind, on Friday I took a look at polling averages in all of the 22 states that will be voting in tomorrow's Super Tuesday, though many of the small states did not have reliable data then or now.

The aim was to juxtapose those Friday polls with weekend polls that have been revealed today. It was my goal to see how Thursday's debate and John Edwards' exit, among many other factors, would affect the numbers.

Friday's conclusion, which I stressed was not the final conclusion of this process, was that Clinton would open up as much as a 200 delegate lead in the Democratic Primary by February 6th, and that's even before counting the majority of superdelegates that she's expected carry.

Today's conclusion? Quite different.

Here's a refresher on what you're looking at in this chart, when I take a look at the 22 states (and 2 other delegations) that are voting in Democratic Primaries on Super Tuesday:

-Number of Pledged Delegates. Those do not count superdelegates from each state, who are at their leisure to choose either candidate. Pledged (3,253) + super (796) = total (4,049).
-Number of polls done recently in each state.
-Average of recent polls in each state.
-Projected split of delegates in the state, if polls hold.
-ADDED TODAY: BLUE represents Obama picking up projected delegates, RED represents Clinton picking up projected delegates. Black represents no change.

Back to it... (Most statistics found from Real Clear Politics.)

Alab.- 52 Pledged Del; 4 polls since 1/31/08; HC47%-BO44% ; HC27-BO25
Alaska - 13 Delegates; no major polls
American Samoa - 3 Delegates; no major polls
Arizona - 56 Delegates; 3 polls since 1/24; HC42%-BO36%; HC30-BO26
Arkansas - 35 Delegates; no major polls
California - 370 Del; 6 polls since 2/1; HC42%-BO42%; HC185-BO185
Colorado - 55 Delegates;
1 recent poll 1/23; BO34%-HC32%; BO28-HC27
Connecticut - 48 Delegates; 3 polls since 1/17; HC42%-BO38%; HC25-BO23
Delaware - 15 Delegates; no recent polls
Democrats Abroad - 7 Delegates; no major polls
Georgia - 87 Delegates; 5 polls since 2/1; BO49%-HC34%; BO51-HC36
Idaho - 18 Delegates; no major polls
Illinois - 153 Delegates; 3 polls since 1/24; BO55%-HC23%; BO108-HC45
Kansas - 32 Delegates; no recent polls
Mass. - 93 Del; 3 major polls since 1/28; HC48%-BO39%; HC51-BO42
Minnesota - 72 Delegates;
1 recent poll 1/27; HC40%-BO33%; HC 39-BO33
Missouri - 72 Delegates; 3 polls since 01/31; HC46%-BO44%; HC 37-BO35
New Jersey - 107 Del; 7 polls since 01/31; HC47%-BO40%; HC58-BO49
New Mexico - 26 Delegates; no major polls
New York - 232 Del; 4 polls since 01/31; HC54%-BO 36%; HC139-BO93
North Dakota - 13 Delegates; no major polls
Oklahoma - 38 Delegates; 2 polls since 1/27; HC43%-BO18%; HC27-BO11
Tennessee - 68 Delegates; 3 polls since 1/29; HC47%-BO34%; HC39-BO29
Utah - 23 Delegates; no major polls

This is a total of 1,688 pledged delegates (with 400 superdelegates still to pledge down the road, but those have nothing to do with whom the voters choose). If we do not include the 185 delegates from the small delegations with no reliable polling (Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, American Samoa, and the Democrats Abroad), that leaves 1,503 delegates.

On Friday, the projected delegate split for that 1,503, among polling through Friday morning, was:
Clinton - 840
Obama - 663
(Spread - Clinton up 173)

Today, the projections looked like this:
Clinton - 765
Obama - 738
(Spread - Clinton up 27)

Clearly, Obama has stolen nearly all the momentum of the Democratic Primary. Now, add to these projections the delegates thus far, and the standings would look like this:
Clinton - 813
Obama - 801
Unprojected from Super Tuesday - 185
Edwards - 26
Remaining - 1,428 Pledged Delegates, 796 Superdelegates

Are you kidding me? 813-801? Understand that these projections have an enormous margin for error, but it was a completely objective breakdown, taking the averages of multiple polls.

What cannot be denied is that every single state that showed movement over the weekend went in favor of Obama. Clinton is barely hanging on. If she comes out on top tomorrow, one can very well postulate that if this took place later in the week, say on Thursday or Saturday, Obama would be Super Tuesday's big winner.

But it's not on Thursday, nor is it on Saturday. Super Tuesday is tomorrow.

I hope to see you back here tomorrow morning, for the latest analysis on both parties, heading into the closest event this country has ever had to a national primary.

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