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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Obama and the Change Express

Between now and March 4th, there are five primaries up for grabs in the Democratic Primary:

Tuesday, February 12
Washington DC (15 pledged delegates)
Maryland (70)
Virginia (83)

Tuesday, February 19
Hawaii (20)
Wisconsin (74)

That's 262 pledged delegates. On March 4th, Texas and Ohio account for 334 pledged delegates. Conclusion: Even if Barack Obama opens up a pledged delegate lead of 150, much of that lead can evaporate in twelve hours. That is, unless he can convince Texas and Ohio to join the 19 states and counting that have went to Obama.

In order to convince them to leave Hillary Clinton's camp, Obama had to win every primary between Super Tuesday and March 4th. This past weekend, he started strong, sweeping the weekend states. Today, he will continue the push, taking all three of the "Potomac Primaries." The Hawaii Caucus will surely be his, as caucuses great favor him, and he spent some of his youth on the islands.

Clinton might not be able to afford waiting until March 4th. This could be decided as early as Wisconsin on February 19th. If Obama wins Wisconsin, it would be a sweep of every state since Super Tuesday. If Clinton wins Wisconsin, the momentum is back in her corner, and Texas and Ohio are given enough reason to still vote for her. If Texas and Ohio vote for her, as explained yesterday, she will use those enormous state delegations and her superdelegate advantage to ride the wins to the nomination.

If the Change Express is to be stopped, it must be stopped by March 4th.

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