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Monday, December 03, 2007

Iowa Caucus Analysis, December 3

Iowa Caucus Analysis, December 3

(Note: This is the first of a month long series analyzing the 2008 Iowa Caucus of both parties. I should have something up by 9:00 each morning, including the latest polling data, so bookmark this site and come back everyday.)

Political junkies have been blessed in 2007, with an unprecedented impending vacuum of power in the primary season. From the latest polls, 2008 will not let us down. There's a reason Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are not guaranteed the nominations of their respective parties. The reason is Iowa.

The Iowa Caucus is the reason Howard Dean wasn't running against George W. Bush in 2004. The Iowa Caucus is the reason there are 8-10 candidates in a non-incumbent field, instead of 2-3. The Iowa Caucus is the reason a half dozen candidates of each party think they have a chance to be nominated for President.

If a candidate is shrewd and astute, an Iowa victory can be parlayed into many more victories in the subsequent primaries, and often times a nomination. A stumble in Iowa? Just ask 2004 top money-raiser and national poll leader Howard Dean.

So, with the importance established, here comes the juicy stuff.

With only a month to go, Hillary Clinton has lost the Iowa lead to her top rival, Barack Obama.
With only a month to go, Rudy Giuliani is between 3rd and 4th in all Iowa polls. A guy named Mike Huckabee is first.

National polls, for the moment, mean nothing. Iowans don't care about them. The Iowa Caucus affects the national poll, not the other way around.

Therefore, because of Iowa, does a guy named Huckabee have a chance to be the next President of the United States? Yeah, after all, here's what I wrote about him last January. While the only Huckabees that 98% of the country was familiar with was from a movie title, I had him in my Top Four of Republican candidates.

"4. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas - Last May, when I outlined much deeper rankings of both parties, I ranked him #14 for the Republicans. Why the jump to #4? Well, let's start with who he leapfrogged. There was Tim Pawlenty and George Pataki, two governors who have shown little nationwide appeal. There was Rick Santorum and George Allen, young stars whose contracts with the devil expired on November 7th, 2006. There was Bill Frist and Jeb Bush, who announced their decision not to run. Also aiding his surge, of course, is Huckabee himself. Of late, I have seen him on CSPAN and The Daily Show outlining a platform that could very well win a primary and a general election. His stance that "Pro life doesn't end at birth," has potential to be the most groundbreaking political platform since Barry Goldwater's Neoconservative movement. Huckabee has potential for some crossover appeal while still being firmly entrenched as a right win politician. He's the closest thing Republicans have to Bill Clinton. They just have to figure out if that's a good thing or a bad thing."

My prediction? With his Clintonian record of taxes and immigration, it's going to be a bad thing. Iowa will move back to Romney.

But who knows? It's Iowa. There's so much more to talk about. See you tomorrow.


The Dude said...


Billary will pull out all the stops in the next month. Like Theo inexlicably dropping the E bomb on the Twins today.

Whatever happened to John Edwards? He is the Lasting Milliage of the Fall Primary Season.

IC said...

Edwards is still in it. Never forget the second choice scenario.

In fact, that's probably what I'll write about tomorrow.

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