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Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Handicapping the Democratic Field

Iowa Caucus Analysis, December 5th
Last night, I read an article which reported on Newt Gingrich's handicapping of both primaries. Gingrich, whom I rank as one of the two most intelligent American politicians of my lifetime (with Bill Clinton), is already positioning himself to run in 2012, which I wrote about in September. Therefore, between that possibility and his partisan ideology, it's very difficult to accept his commentary on the race to the 2008 White House.

That's what you have me for.

Today, the Part 1 of the Dems. Tomorrow: Part 2. Next week, the GOP.

Candidates in reverse order (Note, constantly updated odds can be found on the left sidebar):

8. Mike Gravel (Odds: 1001 - 1)
One line says it all: If the seven candidates above him were to die, Gravel might start to register in some polling data.
How he can win: Convincing Satan to reverse global warming.
When he'll pack it in: After the Alaska primary on February 5th.

7. Dennis Kucinich (Odds: 500 - 1)
One line says it all: He's right about everything, but he looks like Gollum.
How he can win it: If the Democratic base decides to vote ideology over viability.
When he'll pack it in: Oh, he's in this for the long haul, and then he'll endorse the nominee.

6. Christopher Dodd (Odds: 30 - 1)
One line says it all: Aun si habla espanol, a nadie le importa y no puede ganar.
How he can win it: Change Presidential requirements from "Must be 35 years of age or older" to "Must be in government for 35 years or more." Even then, Biden probably beats him.
When he'll pack it in: Between the Nevada Caucus (January 19) and the South Carolina Primary (January 26) after failing to tap into Midwest Spanish-speakers, and before getting embarassed at a primary with a nearly 50% African-American turnout.

5. Joe Biden (Odds: 25 - 1)
One line says it all: No one is better prepared to handle foreign affairs than Joe Biden, and no one is quicker to exhaustively remind us of it.
How he can win it: Put all resources into Iowa and sleep there until January 3rd. Then, just then, might Joe Biden crack into double digits and a top 4 finish. And then just wing it after that.
When he'll pack it in: After the New Hampshire primary (January 8), when he has two fifth place finishes and nothing better in sight. He's a realist.

4. Bill Richardson (Odds: 18 - 1)
One line says it all: He's the only governor in the Democratic field, he's the only one with cabinet experience, he's served in Congress, he's from a swing stage, he's been an ambassador, he's bilingual... and he still can't poll double digits.
How he can win it: Top 3 finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, with top 2 finishes in Nevada and Florida. This would cause Edwards to drop by Super Tuesday, and Richardson would be about even with Obama, trailing Clinton. Obama and Clinton destroy each other in a cosmic battle from February 3-5.
When he'll pack it in: In the week after February 5th, after Super Duper Tuesday reveals he is not a contender... which I could have told him this summer.

Tommorrow: The Big Three.

1 comment:

The Dude said...

Your man crush on Newt Gingrich is crazy.

The Big Three wore tight shorts and whopped up on the L.A.Lakers, Houston Rockets, and Miliwakee Bucks back in the 80's.

Come up with a new term....


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