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Monday, July 09, 2007

John McCain has less money than... Ron Paul?!

On This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Mr. Stephanopoulos broke the story that, after second quarter fiscal numbers were revealed, we now know that the anemic John McCain campaign is poorer than the overachieving Ron Paul campaign. Currently, Paul's war chest is at 2.4 million to McCain's inferior 2 million.

While many conclusions can be drawn from this, some other conclusions are jumping the gun. Let's take a look.

What this does mean:

1. The McCain campaign is running on fumes.
2. The Paul campaign is resonating with many voters.
3. I was wrong about McCain. He should not be considered the favorite for the nomination anymore. (The Line has been altered accordingly. A new favorite is anointed!)

What this doesn't mean:

1. Ron Paul has a better chance to win the nomination than John McCain.
2. Ron Paul is raising more money than John McCain.
3. John McCain's campaign is over.


Listen, here's the deal. McCain is struggling. He has been unpopularly attached to the two biggest political issues in America: Iraq and immigration.

But to suggest that Ron Paul is the stronger candidate is a pipe dream. The reason McCain has less cash on hand is because he spends so much of it. In the second quarter, McCain spent 11 million dollars to Paul's 2 million. He's actually running a national campaign.

Paul's campaign staff has 11 people. He doesn't do a lot of traveling. Basically, he's an online candidate (Youtube, Myspace, Facebook) who just shows up to take some swings at the debates. Liberals love him because he criticizes fellow Republicans (liberals conveniently ignore that he'd probably cut Social Security, Medicare, etc.) and select conservatives love him because he touts fiscal responsibility. He's also a special candidate because he's the only Republican in a field of 10-12 that is vehemently against the war in Iraq.

So what he lacks in funds and name-recognition (Two of the most important facets of a national campaign) he tries to make up in moxie. He's a fascinating political specimen. But that's all he is - a specimen. He's not a lion like John McCain.

The concern for John McCain is that he may have peaked in 2000. He's never been able to recapture the straight shootin' moniker that catapulted him into the hearts of the media and voters. His greatest strength is still that he doesn't seem to care what political ramifications occur when he opens his mouth and speaks his feelings... it's just that his feelings are not in tune with the rest of America. That means his greatest strength is currently his greatest weakness.

Maybe, just maybe, the GOP will gradually distrust Giuliani's social liberalism and Romney's Mormonism, leaving them with only their old, honest, tried and true John McCain.

But probably not.

1 comment:

sptmck said...

It's not looking good for bomb-bomb Irany. But who knows: the guy did survive Nam. In the big scheme of things, this is nothing for him.

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