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Saturday, March 03, 2007

How the "Six Step Process" (c) Will Shape the Election

What is the conservative base asking themselves these days about their possible Republican candidates: Who's the most conservative?

Or who's the least liberal?

As 2007 enters its third month, leaving only nine before primary season begins, CNN.com has an article describing the continuing dilemma conservative voters are facing in the upcoming primary and general elections. Some just aren't conservative enough.

Taking a look at the frontrunners...

John McCain - The rightest of right-wingers still aren't over Senator McCain dubbing televangelist Jerry Fallwell an "agent of intolerance." While having more of a conservative streak than most people think, issues like immigration and campaign finance reform are examples of McCain going away from Republicans to vote for what he believes. The guy's a straight shooter. Look at his immensely unpopular stance on Iraq, where despite being in a presidential race (read: popularity contest), he refuses to back away from supporting a troop surge. He takes unpopular stances regardless of the political implications. He's doing his job the only way he knows how - voting his mind. This troubles the Republican Party and the conservative base. They want a puppet, and despite Senator McCain's peculiar looking jaw, he is most definitely not one.

The campaign will eventually begin to spin the "straight shooter" moniker, using the examples written above. While people will respect the honesty, there is one problem: They'll disagree with him on the biggest issue in the election and they'll KNOW it's what he truly believes. Tough spot for the Senator from Arizona.

Rudy Giuliani - Three enormous issues for conservatives - gay marriage, abortion, gun control. Giuliani's liberal on each one. I have two working theories as to how this will affect the Republican Primary and beyond, and I favor the second one.

1 - Republican voters learn more about his liberally slanted social issues and marital problems. When this happens, his currently large leads in the polls will steadily dwindle until he is ranked 2nd, 3rd, or 4th behind more conservative voters.

2 - "I don't care what he believes, but he'll keep me safe." True assertion or not, this will DEFINITELY be a quote out of some conservative voters' mouths - it all depends on how many mouths.

Mitt Romney - Conversation between two Republican voters on Mitt Romney:

A) Mormon Mormon Mormon, Mormon.
B) Mormon polygamy Mormon?
A) Mormon Mormon Gay rights flipflop Mormon.
B) Mormon! And Mormon Mormon abortion flipflop Mormon Mormon.
A) Mormon.

Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, et al. - There are, of course, conservative alternatives to the Republican Big Three. Their main drawback, however, is that they aren't nearly as nationally electable in the November 2008 vote. And what would be the point of nominating a conservative if one of those filthy, liberal, gay-loving, baby-killing, gun-hating, tax-raising, medicine-socializing, terrorist Democrats are going to win in November?

And THAT, ladies and gentlemen, might be the biggest issue in the upcoming primaries for both parties. Does one sacrifice voting for their ideal candidate in an effort to elect the candidate who actually has a chance to garner some crossover votes?

How would this work in a practical format? Take a look at what I call: The Six Step Process (c).

Hypothetical example:

1. John Q. Democrat agrees with Chris Dodd on 90% of the issues.
2. John Q. Democrat agrees with John Edwards on 70% of the issues.
3. John Q. Democrat agrees with John McCain on 30% of the issues.
4. John Q. Democrat doesn't think Chris Dodd can defeat John McCain
5. John Q. Democrat thinks John Edwards will defeat John McCain.
6. John Q. Democrat votes for John Edwards in the primary, because he'd rather have a President that agrees with him 70% of the time than a President that agrees with him 30% of the time.

Since the upcoming election is "primarily" and "generally" the most wide open national contest since 1928, with both sides desperately wanting the White House after President Bush's tumultuous eight years, the predominant issue will be: Who is the most electable?

You can answer that one for yourselves.

4 comments:

PietVan said...

Where will we find a competive candidate that follows the conservative base. None of the "front runners" came anywhere near he sentiment of the country. I'm just an Average Guy In Flyover Country http://avgerageguyinflyovercountry.blogspot.com/

IC said...

I feel you, Pietvan. Despite the Republicans losing both chambers of Congress, the country as a whole is no less conservative than it was before the midterms. Flyover country is still looking for a candidate to tend to their priorities, and the Republican Big Three aren't obliging.

PresidentWebb said...

Well "Flyover Country" needs to start its own party. Pat Buchanan isn't doing much these days.

Anonymous said...

Your six-step process is right on, but you haven't convinced me that that republicans are going to nominate the most conservative. I think they're in theposition that the Democrats were in last time. They need to become their opponnents. They'll go for the middle of the road, knowing that the conservatives will vote for them no matter how liberal they are. Why would they vote for a Democrat if there's someone more conservative available?

Won't it be funny if a Ralph Nader third-party conservative enters the race because the two parties are too similar? Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.

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